Opinion | Trump can’t break Russia’s alliance with China – but he can shake it

With Washington and Moscow advancing talks for peace in Ukraine, a successful deal would draw them closer, which could prove disadvantageous for Beijing

Reading Time:3 minutes

Traditional Russian wooden dolls called Matryoshka depicting China’s President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are seen in a souvenir shop in St Petersburg, Russia, on November 21. Photo: AP

Published: 5:30am, 27 Feb 2025

America’s recent push to end the war in Ukraine has involved talk of significant concessions to Russia and sidelined both Kyiv and the European Union. For China, the pace of the US-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia might have been equally surprising.

Just weeks ago, China was comfortably positioned to play an important role in US President Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts, with Washington seemingly open to working with Beijing to leverage China’s economic influence over Russia. This aligned with Beijing’s goal of presenting itself as a neutral player, built on the 12-point Ukraine peace plan unveiled in 2023.

Now amid Russia-US talks, China has found itself excluded, neither acting as Russia’s ally at the table nor a mediator. Given that China has largely supported Russia since the war broke out in February 2022, leading to tensions with the EU and US, Beijing could find itself in an uncomfortable position.

Officially, however, Beijing has voiced support for the peace initiative. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi recently said: “China supports all efforts aimed at peace, including the recent consensus reached between the US and Russia.”

Ideally, China would prefer to see the war in Ukraine frozen and overseen by the United Nations, which could allow it to send troops. But, perhaps more importantly, the resolution of the conflict would help China rebuild ties with the EU that suffered as Beijing moved closer to Russia. Given the massive value of bilateral trade with the EU – some US$762 billion last year – and ongoing problems around Chinese electric vehicle exports to Europe, China is keen to improve relations.

Importantly, a successful Ukraine peace deal would draw Moscow and Washington closer, which could prove disadvantageous for Beijing.