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Nikola Mikovic

As the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches, peace in the Eastern European country seems closer than ever. US President Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as a de facto mediator, seems determined to end the war. But is Kyiv interested in signing a peace deal with Moscow on Washington’s terms?
According to the American leader, Ukraine had three years to reach an agreement with Russia “that would have given them almost all of the land”. Surprisingly, he appears to be blaming Kyiv, or more precisely, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for the war.
“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” Trump said, following the talks held by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on February 18.
Prior to this, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone on February 12. Coincidentally or not, that day marked the 10th anniversary of the Minsk agreement – a document that effectively froze the Donbas war, which erupted in the spring of 2014 following the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv that led to the overthrow of allegedly pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich.
If reports about Trump’s peace plan are true, it seems his ambition is not to force Moscow and Kyiv into a sustainable peace treaty, but rather to once again put the conflict on ice. Further, if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire soon, the Ukrainian authorities would be able to hold elections.
What Moscow and Washington seem to share is a desire to get rid of Zelensky politically. For the Kremlin, he is an “illegitimate” leader, given that his term expired last year. Trump, for his part, has insinuated Zelensky might have pocketed half of the aid the US gave Ukraine. He also claims the Ukrainian leader is a “dictator” with a “4 per cent approval rating”, in a bid to pressure him to hold a vote.


The problem for Moscow and Washington is that Zelensky is unlikely to be replaced by a pro-Russian politician, or someone at least willing to recognise Moscow’s annexation of five Ukrainian regions. Even if Zelensky suffers an election defeat, it does not automatically mean that the next Ukrainian government will agree to a deal with Putin under Trump’s conditions. With or without Zelensky, Ukraine would be very resistant to what is widely perceived as a surrender to Putin.
More importantly, the United States might have turned its back on the Ukrainian leader, but he can still count on Europe. While the US and Russia plan to normalise relations and appoint ambassadors to each other’s capitals as soon as possible, the European Union has agreed to impose a fresh round of sanctions against Russia.
Also, the bloc reportedly plans to send Ukraine an unprecedented aid package of up to €700 billion (US$730 billion), as several European nations express their readiness to deploy troops to the Eastern European country.
Foreign troops on Ukrainian soil is something that Moscow would have a hard time accepting. Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine over Kyiv’s ambition to join Nato. Thus any troops from Nato countries in the war-torn nation would undoubtedly represent the Kremlin’s strategic defeat, even if Ukraine formally gives up joining the US-led alliance.


In spite of this, Trump insists that he has “the power to end this war”. Although an end seems to be in sight for the war in Gaza, with Hamas ready to release all hostages, resolving the conflict in Ukraine will be easier said than done. What Moscow and Kyiv, through mediation by Trump, could sign is a Minsk-style ceasefire agreement that would allow both Russian and Ukrainian militaries to prepare for a new, even bloodier war.
According to Rubio, the US president wants to end the war in a way that is “sustainable and enduring”, which will not lead to “another conflict in two to three years”. But what if another war breaks out in four years, when Trump’s second term in office expires?
It is widely believed that Trump seeks to end or freeze the Ukraine war so that the US can focus on other issues, whether it is Iran, with its nuclear programme, or China. Some Russian analysts take the view that Washington’s long-term goal is to turn Russia against China and use Moscow as an instrument against Beijing.
What could be worrying policymakers in Beijing is the fact that Rubio and Lavrov, during their talks in Saudi Arabia, agreed to “lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest”. Could such a deal have an impact on “no-limits” Chinese-Russian cooperation?




Officially, Beijing supports the ongoing normalisation of relations between the US and Russia, as well as Trump’s attempts to end the war in Ukraine. “China believes that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way out of the crisis, and it has been committed to promoting talks for peace,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said.
Although China almost certainly hopes to play a beneficial role in Ukraine’s reconstruction and post-war economy, if the Trump administration continues to wage a trade war against the Chinese, relations between Washington and Beijing will go from bad to worse. As a result, the US is not only likely to prevent China from participating in the reconstruction of Ukraine, but it might also expect Moscow to align with Washington in a potential new cold war with China.
Could that be one of the reasons Trump is showing a readiness to make concessions to Putin? After all, in politics, there’s no such thing as a free lunch.


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The US president seems intent on ending the Ukraine war to focus on issues like China. Washington might hope to turn Moscow against Beijing


The US president seems intent on ending the Ukraine war to focus on issues like China. Washington might hope to turn Moscow against Beijing.


Vladimir Putin

Ukraine

Donald Trump

Russia

Nato

War and conflict

European Union

US-Russia relations

US-China relations

China-Russia relations

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Why China should worry as Trump makes nice with Putin over Ukraine

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The US president seems intent on ending the Ukraine war to focus on issues like China. Washington might hope to turn Moscow against Beijing

The US president seems intent on ending the Ukraine war to focus on issues like China. Washington might hope to turn Moscow against Beijing