Despite the Trump threat, China-EU alignment remains a challenge

US President Donald Trump appears to be doing his best to make an alignment between the European Union and China possible. It is a paradox, given that Washington and Europe have a long-standing alliance but that, essentially, is what is emerging. Trump has slapped fresh US trade tariffs on China and promised the EU would be next in the firing line, prompting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to respond that the bloc would retaliate if targeted. Like the Chinese leadership, EU institutions, member countries and leaders are trying to understand how to cope with an increasingly aggressive Trump. Setting aside trade quarrels and joining hands can be a realistic option for Beijing and Brussels. At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, von der Leyen said the EU was ready to “engage constructively” with China. The EU has never been Trump’s darling, and as von der Leyen pointed out in Davos, Europe “must look for new opportunities wherever they arise”, engaging new friends beyond blocs. This should be music to Chinese ears. But at this stage of the EU-Trump confrontation, the European bloc might simply be using the possibility of a rapprochement with China as a ploy to soften the US president’s tariff threat – seeing as its primary choice the working out of a modus vivendi with the new administration in Washington. During the Biden’s administration, von der Leyen fundamentally aligned Brussels with Washington’s attempts to tackle what the two sides denounced as China’s persistent market and trade distortions – though Europe has so far failed to effectively “de-risk” from China. The European Commission continued along this line even after Trump’s election. In mid-December, under its Digital Services Act, the EU executive body opened an investigation into Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok for suspected election interference in Romania. The bloc also reported on January 14 that European suppliers of medical devices received unfair treatment in Chinese public tenders, and that this could lead to restrictions on the participation of Chinese companies in EU public procurements. All this while negotiations to remove EU tariffs on China-made electric vehicles appear to be at a standstill, with Chinese carmakers BYD, Geely and SAIC launching legal challenges at the EU Court of Justice against the trade penalties. Other clues suggest von der Leyen’s overture to China is likely to be a negotiating tactic. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democrat Union in Germany (von der Leyen’s political party), and the front runner to become the next German chancellor after this month’s elections, recently suggested China was forming with Russia, Iran and North Korea an “axis of anti-democratic autocracies that are challenging our democracies”. He also said Trump’s claim that the United States needed to take over Greenland from Denmark (an EU member) was merely to focus Europe’s attention and resources on the strategic value of the Arctic island. When a Western leader hints at the strategic importance of the Arctic region, he or she is definitely alluding to China and Russia’s activities in the vast region. It seems hardly by chance that Robert Brieger, head of the EU Military Committee, the bloc’s highest military body, has raised the possibility of dispatching EU troops to Greenland. He said the move would make sense as increasing ice melt there “creates a certain potential for tension with Russia and possibly China”. Denmark recently said it would invest some US$2 billion on reinforcing security in the Arctic region in partnership with its autonomous territories Greenland and the Faroe Islands. This came on top of the allocation in December of at least US$1.5 billion to boost the defence of Greenland. The Danish government has underlined that the new spending was a response to “serious challenges regarding security and defence” in the Arctic and North Atlantic. Despite growing commercial challenges, China remains a top trading partner of the EU. Chinese President Xi Jinping has tried to improve ties with Europe in recent years, but to no avail. In 2021, tit-for-tat sanctions over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and the European Parliament sinking a bilateral investment agreement promoted by then German chancellor Angela Merkel, derailed Xi’s efforts to drive a wedge between the EU and Washington. China should make substantial concessions to mend fences with the EU. Reducing market distortions (such as commercial dumping and state subsidies) and ensuring a level playing field for European investors should top the list. The package should also include an end to Beijing’s support for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. In return, the bloc could offer enhanced economic cooperation by scrapping its de-risking policy, and expand diplomatic and geopolitical engagement with Beijing. But the recent appointment of Lu Shaye, China’s abrasive former ambassador to France, as special representative for European affairs does not appear to signal smoother dialogue. Beijing has selected a Wolf Warrior diplomat known for controversial statements when it should instead be selecting its messages to the EU with great care. If the EU manages to seek an accommodation with Trump on trade issues, military spending in the transatlantic security alliance Nato and tech regulations, it is highly likely to remain tough on China – unless Xi is able to strike a comprehensive deal of his own with his US counterpart. The postponement of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada signals some margin of manoeuvre. After all, it would take a geopolitical cataclysm, such as Trump going wild with tariffs or embarking on imperialist adventures through economic and military coercion, for the EU to consider turning completely on the US and forming a bloc with China to counter Trump.

Despite the Trump threat, China-EU alignment remains a challenge

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}EU’s friendly overture to China may be aimed at bargaining with Trump. Meanwhile, China has installed a Wolf Warrior envoy

EU’s friendly overture to China may be aimed at bargaining with Trump. Meanwhile, China has installed a Wolf Warrior envoy