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Emanuele Scimia

After Russia and Iran’s regional power projection, China’s diplomacy is the most visible victim of the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad at the hands of a coalition of rebel forces led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The list of participants at an international summit on Syria held in Jordan last Saturday manifestly marked a blow to Beijing’s ambitions to increase its diplomatic standing on the world stage. The meeting’s line-up in Amman included Arab diplomats, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan and new European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Russia’s and Iran’s exclusions are not surprising as they materially supported the Assad regime with arms and troops during the civil war that broke out in Syria 13 years ago. China has offered the former Syrian strongman tacit political backing, as well as promises of economic cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and help for reconstruction.
This more nuanced commitment, coupled with its official policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries and expanding trading ties in the region, should position China as a potential mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts. It seems relevant parties think otherwise, including a regional kingmaker such as Saudi Arabia, which has close diplomatic links with Beijing and is its second-largest oil supplier.
China’s absence from the Jordan summit could suggest that the new masters in Damascus do not believe that China can play a neutral role in the transition. Turkey and the Sunni Arab participants – at the moment the true winners in the new Syrian reality, given Shiite Iran’s strategic defeat – might see any possible Chinese contribution as irrelevant.
As far as the United States and European Union are concerned, they are likely to be wary of China’s attempts to expand its diplomatic footprint in the Middle East and beyond. Beijing has reportedly helped the Iranians overcome sanctions and political pressure imposed by the US in recent years.

In the eyes of Washington and most European governments, this means the Chinese have also indirectly propped up Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the US’ influence. This axis includes Islamist groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, the Palestinian Hamas movement, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iraq’s Shiite militias.
China’s diplomatic woes in the Middle East were evident even before Assad’s overthrow. Its efforts to facilitate a peaceful solution to the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has entered its second year, have proved ineffective. The shuttle diplomacy of Chinese special envoy for the Middle East Zhai Jun has achieved no concrete results, while Israeli ties with Beijing have hit rock bottom in the face of China’s support for Palestinian claims against those of Israel.
The reality is that there is too much power in the hands of the US or regional actors such as Turkey for China to play an important geopolitical role in the Middle East. The current unstable situation in Syria portends a further increase in the diplomatic action of Washington and Ankara.
The US has shown it still calls the shots in the Middle East. Israel could not have degraded Hamas in Gaza and scored points against Hezbollah and Iran without US political and military support. Washington has also been able to promote a truce between Israel and Hezbollah and is reportedly set to favour a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. For its part, Turkey was evidently behind the victorious push by anti-Assad rebels and is now positioning itself as the primary broker in the Syrian political transition.


Some might claim that US president-elect Donald Trump is looking for US disengagement from Syria, potentially creating a geopolitical void that China could strive to fill. However, Washington’s complete disentanglement is unlikely. The protection of Israel was one of the central planks of Trump’s foreign policy, and the evolution of the political situation in Syria will inevitably have repercussions on the Israeli security landscape.
For instance, the persistent presence of the Islamic State (Isis) terrorist group on Syrian territory is an element of instability. If anti-Assad forces were to remain gripped in an inter-rebel civil war, Isis fighters in Syria could regain ground and also threaten the Israeli border.
Washington has already emphasised that the current fighting between pro-Turkish rebel units and US-backed Kurdish militias in northern Syria might weaken international efforts to counter Isis operations. In addition, Trump would be forced to help Israel should jihadist formations hostile to Israel dominate the scene in Damascus.




With the US, Turkey and Israel appearing to have the upper hand in the current Middle Eastern dynamic, it is hard to imagine how China can find some room for diplomatic manoeuvre.
There is a chance that Beijing’s diplomacy in the Middle East could reclaim a central role if its Iranian partners – who emerged battered from recent clashes with Israel – were to accept a resumption of talks to rein in their nuclear programme in the face of Trump’s return. China was part of the negotiations in 2015 that led to the multilateral agreement on the limitation of Iran’s nuclear activities, which Trump killed in 2018 during his first presidential stint.
In case of a revival of the international diplomatic process, China could again play the role of facilitator given its close ties with Iran. The ball is now in the Iranian camp, but Tehran does not seem inclined to negotiate with the incoming US president.


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Middle East

Fall of Syria’s Assad narrows China’s diplomatic space in the Middle East

A man walks across from the embassy of China in the Syrian capital Damascus on December 12. Islamist-led rebels took Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, ousting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. Photo: AFP

Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) shakes hands with Bashar al-Assad, then Syria’s president, in Hangzhou on September 22, 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE

China faces test in Syria ties after Beijing-friendly Bashar al-Assad flees

Smoke billows as people arrive to celebrate the fall of the Syrian government, in Damascus, Syria on Sunday. Photo: AP

Bashar al-Assad’s (left) September 2023 trip to China, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping, was seen as a sign of Beijing’s support for the Syrian leader. Photo: EPA-EFE/Xinhua

China’s rush to fill power vacuum in Iraq could backfire

An Iraqi youth rides his bicycle near a flare stack in the Rumaila oilfield near Iraq’s southern port city of Basra on May 5. Chinese firms oversee two-thirds of Iraq’s oil production. Photo: AFP

China offers Iran moral support in shadow of Israel-Hezbollah hostilities

Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in the southern village of Kfar Rouman, seen from Marjayoun, south Lebanon, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has met representatives from more than a dozen countries while in New York, but none from Israel. Photo: AFP

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in the southern village of Kfar Rouman, seen from Marjayoun, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

There is too much power in the hands of the US and regional actors like Turkey for China to play a key role


There is too much power in the hands of the US and regional actors like Turkey for China to play a key role.


China-Middle East relations

Syria

Syrian conflict

Diplomacy

Turkey

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Fall of Syria’s Assad narrows China’s diplomatic space in the Middle East

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}There is too much power in the hands of the US and regional actors like Turkey for China to play a key role

There is too much power in the hands of the US and regional actors like Turkey for China to play a key role