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C. Uday Bhaskar

Rebel groups that ousted former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad have named Mohammed al-Bashir as the caretaker prime minister of a nation that is caught in the vortex of a dramatic regime change with significant geopolitical implications, both regional and global.
The flux in Syria ranges from celebration over the removal of a brutal ruler to deep anxiety about what the future holds for more than 23 million citizens who have endured years of repression, war, displacement and turmoil.
Violent clashes between rival groups have been reported in the northern city of Manbij, which could plunge Syria into another messy civil war with external powers advancing their sectarian interests by supporting different factions. Rival armed groups range from Islamists and Kurdish separatists to factions representing the interests of the Druze community, with some backed by Iran, Turkey or the United States.
Syria, which has been under the authoritarian rule of the Assad family since the 1970s, witnessed a tectonic development when rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the capital, Damascus, with virtually no resistance. Assad has fled to Russia where he has been granted asylum, thereby bringing more than five decades of tyrannical governance by one family to an inglorious end.
The speed with which HTS – once tied to al-Qaeda and currently designated as a terrorist organisation both by the United Nations and the US – seized power has been stunning.
Several factors enabled this dramatic sequence of events that began in late November, including low morale and discord within the Syrian military, weakening levels of tangible support from Russia and Iran for the Assad regime and the role of external powers such as Turkey and the US in aiding anti-Assad groups.


The events of September 11, 2001, and the US-led “war on terror” convulsed the Arab and Islamic worlds. When the US invaded Iraq in 2003, parts of southwestern Asia were undergoing varying degrees of turmoil. The threat posed by al-Qaeda morphed into what is now known as Islamic State. At one time, Isis controlled large parts of Syria.
Over the years, new groups were spawned – some with US support. In the tangled web of clones, HTS emerged from a group known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which was considered the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda before it broke its allegiance. In English, HTS translates as the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant. It cannot be ruled out that Syria could be governed the way Afghanistan is being ruled by the Taliban, with an inflexible interpretation of sharia law.
Social media commentary from Syrians who fled the country over the past decade to escape the brutal repression of the Assad regime varies from exultation over political prisoners freed from dungeons to deep anxiety about what system HTS will impose. Recent statements by the interim leadership about women and their freedoms have been reassuring.
Iran, which backed Assad through its non-state ally Hezbollah has been weakened by his overthrow while Turkey has emerged as a major beneficiary in the regional geopolitical flux. It has been reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tacitly enabled HTS in their triumphant takeover of Damascus.

While Turkey has rejected claims of its involvement, the country is undoubtedly in a powerful position in the wake of Assad’s overthrow. The future course of events will depend on how the new government in Damascus positions itself in relation to its neighbours – particularly Turkey and Israel.
Led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS has been described as “pragmatic”. Whether the group will pursue an agenda similar to Isis, champion the Palestinian cause or antagonise Israel will all be of concern. Israel has already launched a series of air strikes against Syrian military facilities including ammunition depots and strategic locations to prevent HTS from acquiring a military capability that could pose a challenge to Tel Aviv.
Russia, which extended considerable military and political support to prop up the Assad regime, has also been adversely impacted by its overthrow. Moscow is likely to be surprised at the rapid turn of events.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to position his country as a major player in the region, Assad’s ousting will lead to a loss of military facilities in Syria, including in ports along the Mediterranean Sea.

China had also invested in Syria when Assad was in power. Assad’s overthrow will be a temporary setback for Beijing. Here again, the priorities of the new government in Damascus will be critical in determining how China reviews its regional policy approach, especially with Donald Trump taking over the US presidency in late January.
For the US, Syria has long been perceived as part of the Russia-China-Iran axis and the Assad ousting has been welcomed. However, it would be tragic if the embers of the “war on terror” that were resurrected by the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul are replicated in Damascus, with HTS pursuing a reactionary jihadi agenda to “liberate” the Levant.
All the major powers should have a shared objective of containing jihadi terrorist groups and related violence. Can they arrive at a consensus to ensure that the overthrow of Assad does not follow the blood-soaked trail left by Israel’s war in Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?


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Destroyed Syrian regime military equipment at the Kweyris military airfield. Photo: AFP

A bullet-riddled portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is seen the Kweyris military airfield. Photo: AFP

Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) shakes hands with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Hangzhou, China, in September 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE/Xinhua

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A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG (People’s Protection Units) near Qamishli’s airport in northeastern Syria on Sunday. Photo: AFP

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad (left) meeting with the UAE’s Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in Abu Dhabi in 2022. Photo: AFP

Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Photo: Reuters

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Syrian rebels celebrate in Homs, Syria following the takeover of Damascus on Sunday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad at the Kremlin on March 15, 2023 in Moscow. Photo: TNS

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After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, uncertainties remain about the agenda of Syria’s new government and the interests of foreign powers


After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, uncertainties remain about the agenda of Syria’s new government and the interests of foreign powers.


Syria

Syrian conflict

War and conflict

Turkey

Iran

United States

Islamic State

Israel-Gaza war

Taliban

Afghanistan

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Can Syria finally find stability after decades of war and repression?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, uncertainties remain about the agenda of Syria’s new government and the interests of foreign powers

After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, uncertainties remain about the agenda of Syria’s new government and the interests of foreign powers