Dani Rodrik

Opinion | China or the US? The world need not choose a hegemon

Middle powers from India to Nigeria can lead on many pressing issues and offer a multipolar vision that doesn’t depend on superpowers

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India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the United Arab Emirates’ President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian attend a family photo session during the Brics summit in Kazan on October 23. Photo: AFP

Dani Rodrik

Published: 8:30pm, 12 Nov 2024

China’s rise has challenged America’s undisputed hegemony over the world economy – a status the United States has enjoyed since the Soviet Union’s collapse. While some American national-security elites seek continued US primacy, others seem resigned to an increasingly bipolar world. A more likely outcome, however, is a multipolar world where middle powers exert considerable countervailing force, thus preventing the US and China from imposing their interests on others.

Middle powers include India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Nigeria – all large economies that have a significant footprint in the global economy or in their regions. They are far from rich – indeed, they account for a significant share of the world’s poorest people – but they also have large, consumption-oriented middle classes and considerable technological capabilities. The combined gross domestic product (in purchasing-power-adjusted terms) of the six countries already exceeds that of the US and is projected to grow by 50 per cent by 2029.

Typically, these countries have distinctive foreign policies that reject clear alignment with either the US or China. Contrary to what many in the US believe, middle powers have no great affinity for China, nor do they want to cosy up to it at the expense of their relationship with the US. In fact, insofar as they have been driven closer to China, it is because of US policy. America’s weaponisation of its trade and financial might has impelled them to hedge their bets.

The leaders of middle powers do not want a world where they are forced to take sides. “We refuse to be a pawn in a new cold war,” said Joko Widodo when he was Indonesia’s president. Instead, they want to build trade and investment relationships that are multidimensional. Many believe, along with Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times, that “the US is not an anchor for stability, but rather a risk to be hedged against”.

With advanced economies increasingly focused inward, middle powers have become the natural champions of global public goods. They are well positioned to lead in advocating action on climate change, public health and debt distress. A good example is Brazil’s push for a global wealth tax on billionaires during its G20 presidency. The proposal under consideration would raise hundreds of billions of dollars and could play an important role in plugging the gap in climate finance for low-income countries.

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The middle powers are unlikely to become a formidable bloc of their own, mainly because their interests are too diverse to fit into a common economic or security agenda. Even when they have joined formal groupings, their collective impact has been limited. Brics was launched with great fanfare in 2009, but has accomplished little beyond providing photo ops for its leaders.