How a Trump victory could benefit the world

I support Donald Trump, but not for the reasons you might think. Supporting the Republican presidential nominee and former US president exclusively based on a four-year term loses sight of the possible impact of his protectionist policies and his preference for withdrawing the United States from its traditional spheres of influence in global commerce and diplomacy, and from its military commitments. This has allowed other players, like China and Russia, to fill the void, democratising the international landscape as organisations like Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation begin to overshadow the US-led Western order by providing countries with an alternative framework. Trump’s “America first” policy is crucial to ushering in a multipolar world. A key feature of the Trump administration was tariffs. Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25 per cent on about three-quarters of Chinese imports to reduce a trade deficit, bring jobs back to the US and stop China from allegedly exploiting US intellectual property. However, US importers faced US$4.4 billion in extra monthly costs from tariffs, totalling US$52.8 billion annually and costing US$414 per household. Of this, US$282 per household went to taxes, while US$132 per household ended up causing a net loss to the US economy each year. When tariffs are levied at 10 per cent, most firms will absorb the cost in their margins, but once scaled up, they are inevitably passed on to the consumer. Moreover, US firms seeking alternative supply chains faced inefficiencies, and some Chinese firms established factories in Southeast Asia and Mexico to circumvent tariffs. Trump wants to impose a 10 per cent tariff on imports to the US from all countries and 60 per cent duties on imports from China. This would benefit China in the long-term by pushing it to diversify its trade partners, focusing on developing economies in Asia, Africa and South America, and to negotiate trade agreements that would be more equitable for all parties, further reducing the attractiveness of trading with the US. This would have a flow-on effect on US global trade agreements, as evidenced by Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which had been designed to counter China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2016, then-US president Barack Obama stated, “America should write the rules … Other countries should play by the rules that America and our partners set, and not the other way around”. The TPP aimed to address China’s emissions, labour standards and low-cost manufacturing that undermined US competitiveness. It also sought to prohibit subsidies to Chinese state-owned enterprises and prevent technology transfer from US companies. However, after Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP, China and 14 other countries, some of which were TPP members, signed the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Even US allies such as Japan and South Korea signed on, showing that East Asia was indifferent to the China-US economic rift when it came to business. Then there are Trump’s moves to retreat from certain conflicts. Trump reached a deal with the Taliban to end the war in Afghanistan, creating a timetable for a withdrawal, which happened under the Biden administration. This removed the US from a strategic vantage point that enabled oversight of Central Asia, China and Iran. In late 2018, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, a move that would have allowed Turkey and Russia to fill the vacuum there. Ultimately, around 900 troops were left in the country. Earlier this year, the Biden administration reportedly held internal discussions on withdrawing US troops in Syria, a move Trump would probably support. That would further diminish the US presence in the Middle East. Trump’s vocal disdain for funding Nato and his willingness to engage with Russia and North Korea could have similar results in other regions. If any other country’s domestic policies were as unstable as Trump’s were, it would not have made as much of a difference to the global order. Should Trump return, it could trigger a chaotic reaction in international affairs, in which the US plays a central role. Without the possibility of a third term, his policies will make Washington increasingly viewed by allies as unreliable. They may wait out Trump’s term, hoping for a return to normalcy after four years. But during this period, China and Russia could further reshape the global order while promoting stability, equal opportunities and win-win solutions. The Democratic Party might continue to block Trump’s domestic agenda, deepening divisions and leading to civil strife. As Trump tries to “make America great again”, the world might seek stability by simply disengaging with the US.

How a Trump victory could benefit the world

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Trump’s protectionism and isolationist leanings could allow others to fill the void left by the US to promote greater stability

Trump’s protectionism and isolationist leanings could allow others to fill the void left by the US to promote greater stability