Israel-Hezbollah war: not a question of if, but when

Israel’s reported assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut represent a turning point for the Middle East. The calculations have changed – for Israel, Iran and the whole world.

While Iran has vowed to take revenge against Israel, it is becoming clear that, in the short term, the main fight is likely to be between Israel and Hezbollah as Iran is unlikely to take a step that triggers a regional war. Hezbollah is abandoning strategic posts in southern Lebanon in anticipation of being targeted by Israel. This could mean Hezbollah is preparing for a sustained campaign with Tel Aviv, as signalled by reports of the Iranian proxy deploying precision missiles into strike positions.

As Israel and Hezbollah face off, a powder keg threatens to explode in the Middle East, drawing the whole world into the conflict. To begin with, it could start a regional energy crisis. If Israel and Hezbollah clash, Israel may shutter gas fields and stop energy exports to Egypt. These fields could be targeted by Hezbollah.