appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Andrew Hammond

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s political track record is one of a cautious, conservative leader. Yet on Wednesday he took an extraordinary gamble, calling a July 4 general election he is likely to lose, potentially very badly.
This will be the United Kingdom’s first July national election since 1945. That year was a very poor one for the Conservatives with wartime leader Winston Churchill losing by a landslide to Labour.
Recent polls indicate that the Labour Party, more than 20 percentage points ahead, will win a significant majority in the House of Commons. According to the most recent Electoral Calculus forecast, based on these opinion surveys, the probability of a Labour majority is 98 per cent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Labour being the largest party is 100 per cent.
This offers an outside possibility that Labour might win a majority comparable to 1945, or its last landslide year in 1997. To be sure, polls may tighten in the coming weeks, but the direction of travel appears clear towards Labour being the largest party again in the House of Commons.
However, Sunak – a former US green card holder – seems to believe July 4 (Independence Day in the United States) might be a lucky day that will allow him to defy the polls. His announcement on Wednesday is based on his belief that, bad as the political landscape looks now for the Conservatives, it could be even worse in the autumn.
First, UK inflation has fallen from double digits last year to 2.3 per cent, near the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, and the lowest level in around three years. Second, after a series of tax cuts in recent budgets, it is unlikely that the UK public purse can stretch any further in an autumn fiscal event.

At the same time, Sunak might have feared that if he delayed the election till the autumn or winter, several adverse developments could occur. His flagship Rwanda policy, which aimed to send asylum seekers to that African nation, might be frustrated by legal delays. Also, the migration challenges his government faces from small boats crossing the English Channel may intensify during the summer.
Thirdly, Sunak remains worried by the political challenge to the right of the Conservatives from the populist Reform UK party. He might have been especially fearful that, if he waited beyond the summer to call the election, there would be an increasing possibility that Nigel Farage, who helped lead the Leave campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum, would head the Reform campaign.
Yet, while it is plausible that the political prognosis for the Conservatives could be worse in the autumn or winter, this does not equate to July being a good time for the Conservatives to go to the polls. When Sunak became prime minister in 2022, the conventional wisdom was that he would significantly enhance the electoral fortunes of the Conservatives, but the party’s polling numbers have been nearly as bad as before.


Little wonder that the private reaction of many Conservative MPs on Wednesday was bemusement both at Sunak’s decision not to wait till the autumn or winter, and the unprofessional choreography of the announcement with Sunak calling the election in pouring rain, a picture that has drawn much unfavourable commentary.
He got drenched, and he looked miserable. The front pages of Thursday’s national newspapers highlighted this with headlines poking fun at rain-soaked Sunak: “Things can only get wetter” and “Drown & out”.
Some Conservatives also worry about voter turnout on July 4, given that many people will be on holiday in July. Moreover, the election campaign also coincides with the Euro 2024 football tournament in Germany which both England and Scotland are competing in. Election day will also fall a few days after the world-renowned Wimbledon tennis tournament kicks off.

So, while the Conservatives should never be underestimated as a political force, the party is badly divided heading into the six-week election campaign. Almost a decade and a half since David Cameron took power in 2010, and four prime ministers later (Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Sunak), the party looks increasingly tired and divided. This is shown in the growing numbers of Conservative MPs to announce their retirement from politics – well over 60, at the time of writing.
Indeed, there is much speculation that Sunak has, politically speaking, “given up” after a long period of exasperation. Since he assumed office, he has made numerous reboots and policy announcements, but nothing has fundamentally changed the UK’s political weather.
Taken together, Sunak’s attempt to win a fifth straight term for the Conservatives, which would defy political history, is most unlikely to succeed. The prime minister has struggled to secure sustained, significant political momentum in the last couple of years, and the election campaign is unlikely to see a fundamental reversal of this pattern that is powerful enough to send Labour towards a new era of power.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics


Why mainland Chinese despise the British – but Hongkongers don’t

From US Fed rates to China’s global export share: 4 figures shaping markets

Senior HSBC bankers face double blow as school-fee subsidy cut adds to job risks: sources

Saudis scramble to solve ‘humiliating dilemma’ after US rejects Red Sea intervention

Britain

Chances are that Rishi Sunak will lose his summer UK election gamble

The private reaction of many Conservative MPs was bemusement at Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement in pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street on May 22, a picture that has drawn unfavourable commentary and cheeky headlines. Photo: TNS 

A shopper passes a window displaying a sale sign on Oxford Street in London on December 20, 2023. Inflation in the UK has eased back to its lowest level in around three years. Photo: AP 

Cabinet ministers wait for Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to speak during a general election campaign event in east London on May 22,  after he set the date of July 4 for a national election in the UK. Photo: AP

UK election 2024: Labour Party finally has the contest it craves, but traps lie in wait

Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer. Photo: PA via AP

A rain-soaked British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announcing the election on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer. Photo: Reuters

West must bridge its internal divides or risk becoming irrelevant

Police arrest more than 100 students who were demonstrating against Israel’s attacks on Gaza at New York University on April 22. Universities are increasingly characterised by a refusal to consider divergent viewpoints on major issues. Photo: Anadolu via Getty Images

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak addresses the House of Commons in London on April 15. Photo: Reuters/UK Parliament

Opinion

World Opinion

While the Conservatives should never be underestimated as a political force, the party is badly divided heading into the six-week election campaign. Try as he might, Sunak has been unable to change the UK’s political weather


While the Conservatives should never be underestimated as a political force, the party is badly divided heading into the six-week election campaign. Try as he might, Sunak has been unable to change the UK’s political weather.


Rishi Sunak

UK economy

Boris Johnson

Liz Truss

Brexit

Rwanda

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
