Opinion | Hong Kong may feel pain from the trade war but not for too long

While the city’s status as a free port and logistics hub will shield it from total economic ruin, diversifying trade partners is key

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Bargain hunters buy multiple boxes of snacks and preserved foods at the 58th Hong Kong Brands and Products Expo at Victoria Park in Causeway Bay, on December 22, 2024. Photo: Eugene Lee

Published: 8:30pm, 21 Apr 2025Updated: 3:00am, 22 Apr 2025

Many people were taken aback by the ferocity of Xia Baolong’s speech on Hong Kong National Security Education Day. Beneath the director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office’s calm and resolute delivery, there was anger and frustration. The message is clear: this is war – not war in the literal sense but war nevertheless.

Does his speech signal the start of a chain reaction that will lead to total decoupling between the United States and China? If so, could Hong Kong be affected? While Hong Kong government officials are rumoured to have insisted this will not happen, few are comforted by such assurances. The question on the minds of many is: can Hong Kong survive without US trade?

Let’s take a look at the numbers. The US is Hong Kong’s third largest trading partner, according to data from the city’s Census and Statistics Department.

In 2024, Hong Kong’s total exports to the US were worth HK$295.5 billion and imports from the country were worth HK$206 billion. Hong Kong total exports to and imports from the world were worth about HK$4.5 trillion and HK$4.9 trillion respectively. In other words, Hong Kong’s export and import figures to the US were 6.5 per cent and 4 per cent respectively of total global exports and imports. These figures include the transshipment of goods going to and coming from the mainland.

Transshipment might not contribute much to Hong Kong in real money terms, but we must bear in mind that the sector boosts Hong Kong’s status as a logistics hub, especially in the context of trade with the mainland. Any weakening of this position may translate into weakening the importance of the logistics sector in the eyes of Hong Kong’s other trading partners. This cannot be measured in real money terms.

Another point to note is that Hong Kong is a free port and will continue to be one despite the imposition of unprecedentedly high US tariffs. This is dictated by Basic Law and is unlikely to be changed regardless of local sentiment in favour of retaliation.