Last week, a deadline set by Donald Trump for Vladimir Putin to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire, or face tougher sanctions, passed without a ceasefire or any consequences. Instead, the American president has
invited his Russian counterpart to a summit in Alaska on Friday to discuss a possible solution to the war. Trump has hinted this could include some
“swapping” of territories – presumably including Russian-occupied Ukrainian land.
What sets the summit apart is the absence of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky or any representation of Europe, which fears a deal that would be bad for European security by giving Putin what he wants without securing Ukraine’s key interests. That said, and regardless of whether it can really bring an end to the fighting, the fact that the US and Russian presidents are to talk face to face about a possible solution is a landmark event, whatever the outcome.
The real solution is political and cannot be found on the battleground. Nonetheless, it sets a poor example and sends a bad signal to have a peace negotiation without Ukraine – and Europe – at the table. Europe’s concerns in this regard are legitimate. But it is the way Trump likes to negotiate – one on one, not multilaterally with stakeholders. It turns back the clock.
In this case, the US, having always portrayed itself as a protector of the global order, has turned out to be revisionist. Thus far, Putin has got everything he wanted, including a reprieve from more sanctions and a meeting on American soil. Many wonder: why this gift to Putin? Moreover,
gains on the battlefield will add to his negotiating leverage.
Whether the war continues or Europe hastens rearmament as a consequence, one of Trump’s primary concerns is surely maximising
weapons sales. In that regard, Europe may not have many cards to play, having largely ended Russian supplies of cheap energy, the lifeblood of the heavy arms industry.
One summit is unlikely to end the war as the territory issue has wider security implications and will not be resolved quickly. This may help explain why Trump dropped the sanctions threat. Meanwhile, Putin has shored up his leverage with
a call to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who showed full support for Russia’s position.
