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Editorial | Despite pause in US-China tariff war, expect more global fragmentation

Long periods of truce at the current tariff levels may not be ideal for the business sector but this buys time to prioritise negotiations

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm, Sweden, on July 28. Photo: Xinhua

Since US President Donald Trump launched his global trade war in April, the United States and China have held three rounds of high-level negotiations on the neutral ground of Geneva, London and now Stockholm. The ultimate result of what both sides said were constructive talks is agreement to extend the 90-day pause in the sky-high tit-for-tat tariffs, originally due to end by August 12, without setting a deadline.

The agreement between negotiators led by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stipulated it was subject to approval by Trump, is a breakthrough of sorts. It clears the way to focus on structural issues on both sides at the root of the trade conflict, including China’s so-called overcapacity and need to rely more on domestic consumption.

None of these issues will be resolved any time soon, but the two countries realise it is not a desirable option to go back to the tariff retaliation phase.

Both sides would push for the continued extension of the pause on reciprocal tariffs on the US side as well as countermeasures on the Chinese side, said Li Chenggang, China’s vice-minister of commerce, after the negotiations concluded.

We are likely to see long periods of truce based on the current tariff levels. For the business sector this may not be ideal, but it is not unworkable in the sense that it will wreck bilateral relations. Importantly, it will buy time to prioritise negotiations.

That does not mean economic and political relations fraught with tension will improve. Intense competition will continue, including over trade relations with countries caught in the confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. Trump, for example, has announced deals with partners including the European Union, Japan and Indonesia, with India perhaps next.
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