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Tang Meng Kit

Uzbekistan’s recent confirmation that China’s J-10CE fighters have entered into service in its air force ended months of speculation. It is the latest of three developments that include Pakistan’s use of J-10CEs in combat last year and Bangladesh’s draft procurement paper for the Chinese aircraft.
Read separately, each looks like a win for the J-10CE. Taken together, however, they show something narrower: the Chinese aircraft is gaining export traction without yet winning a clean contest against a Western rival.
Pakistan’s file is the one that changed the sales pitch. In May last year, Pakistan Air Force said its J-10CE fighter jets had fired at Indian aircraft during the conflict that followed India’s “Operation Sindoor” strikes. Pakistani officials claimed that five Indian aircraft were shot down, including three Rafales.
By June, Eric Trappier, CEO of Rafale maker Dassault Aviation, was dismissing Pakistan’s claim, noting that India had not officially announced its losses. Reuters, citing US officials, reported that at least one Rafale had been lost. The count remains disputed.
Pakistan is still the only J-10CE operator with a combat record. No air force really wants to be the first to test an unproven jet against a peer adversary; Pakistan absorbed that risk. A potential buyer can now point to someone else’s war instead of being the first to find out.
Bangladesh has done so. Last month, Zahed Ur Rahman, the prime minister’s information and broadcasting adviser, said Bangladesh had “taken note” of the J-10CE’s performance in the war, asserting it was now “established” that the Chinese fighter jet could take down an Indian Rafale. This characterisation is being used to justify the government’s proposal to procure the J-10CE.


In June, a local report cited an unnamed official as saying the government hoped to sign the purchase agreement by August; the proposal continues to await budget approval.
The package is reportedly for 20 jets at over US$2.3 billion; while the flyaway price is US$62.7 million a jet, items such as training, technical support, freight and insurance push the effective per-jet cost to roughly US$115 million. Payments would run through the 2035-36 fiscal year, under a proposed government-to-government arrangement with China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (Catic): a decade of budget commitments to one supplier. This is not simply a question of sticker price.
Bangladesh flies an estimated 35 Chinese F-7s and six Russian MiG-29s with an average fleet age of over 20 years. One of its F-7s crashed into a school in Dhaka in July last year, killing dozens, mostly students. The need for replacement is clear. The choice is not.
Last December, Bangladesh Air Force also signed a letter of intent with Italy’s Leonardo to buy the Eurofighter Typhoon. Local reporting suggests it could seek up to 16 of the aircraft. Bangladesh is holding on to two options, but neither is yet a contract.
As for Uzbekistan, its story runs through Moscow rather than Beijing. Its air force inherited MiG-29s, Su-27s and Su-25s at independence in 1991, and has leaned on Russian parts and overhaul capacity since, in a supply chain that has come under greater pressure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The recent announcement confirms that its Chinese J-10CEs have arrived and are flying. What no one has confirmed – not Tashkent, not Beijing – are the details of the contract behind them: the reported figures of 24 jets for roughly US$1 billion are still just that – reported. It’s also not clear if Uzbekistan is retiring its Russian jets or simply adding to them.
Bangladesh is weighing the J-10CE against a Western alternative. Uzbekistan is diversifying away from a Russian one. They may end up making the same choice, but they are starting from very different places. The tested buyers sit elsewhere.
Indonesia bought 42 Rafales for US$8.1 billion in 2022 and has since moved towards more; while it has been named as a prospective J-10CE customer, no order has been confirmed. Egypt, which continues to expand its fleet of Rafales, has for years drawn unconfirmed reports that it is a buyer of J-10s.
Both Indonesia and Egypt are still moving ahead with Western fighters. Neither has chosen the J-10CE. In comparison, Bangladesh is still deciding, with a Chinese draft agreement in one hand and an Italian letter of intent in the other. Neither has become a contract.
Until a buyer signs for the Chinese fighter jet against a Western alternative or walks away from one, the J-10CE will keep collecting operators without answering the harder question: can it actually win over the market?


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In service in Pakistan and Uzbekistan and on Bangladesh’s radar, the fighter jet is not yet a threat to Western market dominance


In service in Pakistan and Uzbekistan and on Bangladesh’s radar, the fighter jet is not yet a threat to Western market dominance.


Aviation

Chengdu Aircraft Corporation

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Uzbekistan

Pakistan

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Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


China’s J-10CE has foreign buyers, but not yet a market

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}In service in Pakistan and Uzbekistan and on Bangladesh’s radar, the fighter jet is not yet a threat to Western market dominance

In service in Pakistan and Uzbekistan and on Bangladesh’s radar, the fighter jet is not yet a threat to Western market dominance