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Opinion
Beijing can rewrite China’s property rules, but it can’t undo the damage
A narrower supply pipeline, industry consolidation and years of balance-sheet repair are inevitable as China seeks stability, rather than a perpetual housing boom
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Michael Han is assistant president and Shanghai general manager at Yuepu Technology Group.
Financial markets are notoriously prone to mistaking a fundamental institutional shift for a temporary liquidity crisis. The futurist Roy Amara is often credited with the observation that people tend to overestimate the short-term effect of a transformation while underestimating its long-term impact. China’s real-estate sector is furnishing a textbook case of an analogous dynamic.
On August 28, Chinese housing authorities and financial regulators announced a package to overhaul the commercial housing sales system. The measures include a gradual shift towards sales of completed homes, tighter supervision of presale escrow accounts, new project-based financing arrangements and extended mortgage terms. The announcement initially sparked excitement among global financial centres eager for another round of sweeping property stimulus.
Equity markets quickly delivered a far more complicated verdict. When trading resumed on Monday, shares of major property developers plummeted. China Jinmao and Greentown China dropped by more than 10 per cent; China Resources Land and other major builders also suffered losses. This whiplash – early optimism followed by a punishing sell-off – underscored a disconnect between policy intentions and investor expectations. The market initially misinterpreted Beijing’s intent, only to reprice as the reality of structural deleveraging set in.
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