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China’s export success is a by-product of self-reliance
But while the export surge is an accidental consequence of self-sufficiency and competitive manufacturers, the solution is not protectionism
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David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access.
Not a day passes without someone in Europe or the United States complaining about China’s “overproduction” and “China shock 2.0”. The narrative is of a deliberate, subversive Chinese strategy, underpinned by subsidies, to undermine the manufacturing economies of the West and exert economic hegemony worldwide.
Inaccurate as the narrative may be, it is widely accepted and used to justify demands for protection. The larger China’s trade surpluses, the louder the likely clamour from Western industrial lobbies.
Frustrating as it may feel for China’s ferociously competitive manufacturers, ignoring the clamour is likely to be a mistake. China’s export success is undeniable, as is the sense of threat felt across many sectors in Europe and the US.
While China was exporting cheap consumer goods, they were tolerated, even welcomed. But today’s increasingly sophisticated exports, including many indispensable components in even the most sophisticated Western products, constitute a different level of threat. They threaten not just jobs but national pride. Many also claim they are threats to national security.
And this sense of threat can only spread as more Europeans and Americans realise the astonishing range of sectors in which Chinese companies have advanced to the frontiers.
It’s bad enough with solar panels, wind farms, batteries and magnets. Worse still with world-beating electric vehicles, robots, high-speed trains and shipbuilders. Or artificial intelligence companies like DeepSeek and Moonshot AI biting at the heels of frontier US companies. Or the rare earths virtually monopolised by China that are essential to the 21st century’s green and internet-based innovations.
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