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David Dodwell

Even as “China shock 2.0” is roiling Western manufacturers, we must, it seems, brace for “China shock 3.0” – to the global food economy – as President Xi Jinping doubles down on the imperative that has obsessed Beijing for decades: food security.
“China’s Food Future”, a consultation paper by Systemiq funded by the California-based Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, warns that China is poised to “reshape global agricultural commodity supply chains”.
It suggests China is set to apply to agriculture the industry policy playbook that has lifted it to manufacturing dominance in sectors ranging from cars, batteries and rare earths, to solar and wind power, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
It sees Beijing’s “ability to coordinate policy, scale production and mobilise capital at unprecedented speed” driving development of a wide range of food-related technologies intended to ensure food security and reduce reliance on imports. These range from synthetic biology and new protein sources, genetically engineered farm products, seed development and fermentation-derived ingredients, all built around new domestic innovation clusters.
It expects China to reduce reliance on soy imports, improve farmland, build aquaculture, spawn vertical livestock farms and develop integrated farm-sector infrastructure.
The paper warns: “Producer countries who are dependent on China as a destination for soy, beef and dairy need to build alternative market relationships now.” That means the United States, Brazil and New Zealand in particular, though where they will turn to replace such a large market is a moot point.


China’s food security imperative has been front and centre of national policy since 1949. Back then, the battle was against brute poverty. Since 1982, this core priority has been laid out annually in “No 1 document”, the first policy document released by the Chinese government each year, and traditionally focused on agriculture, rural development and farmers.
According to Systemiq, the food security imperative is being reasserted – not as part of the geopolitical arm-wrestling we will see next week at the Xi-Trump summit in Beijing, but in response to flaring anxiety over food security and a sense of acute vulnerability despite striking success in lifting hundreds of millions of rural Chinese out of poverty.
The sense of precarity has its roots in demographics: 15 per cent of the world’s population needing to feed itself on 8 per cent of the world’s arable land. It has been made worse by hectic urbanisation, acute water shortages, pollution and climate change. The Covid-19 disruption of global supply chains and Trump tariff wars have aggravated the sense of insecurity and boosted the imperative to “de-risk”.
As China’s leaders clawed away from grinding poverty, they have also facilitated what may be the biggest dietary transformation in human history. The country’s 1.4 billion people have converted from diets dominated by starchy roots and pulses to animal protein, processed foods and convenience products.
In the process, China has become the world’s largest food producer by far – 7.5 billion tonnes in 2022, compared with second-placed India with around 4.5 billion tonnes. But it also lost contact with self-reliance and became the world’s largest food importer. Despite a record trade surplus, China’s import deficit in agricultural commodities rose to US$124.5 billion in 2024.


Up to 2002, China remained largely self-sufficient in food, but since 2003, as diets have become more varied and protein-rich, it has become increasingly import-reliant. Today, China is the world’s largest consumer of meat and fish, accounting for more than 25 per cent of demand. And it relies on imports to meet about 30 per cent of its food needs, heading towards 40 per cent by 2030.
While it remains largely self-sufficient in grains, it imports over 84 per cent of the soybeans it needs, 67 per cent of its oils and nuts, and almost 25 per cent of its beef. Despite having the world’s largest food stockpiles, China is paranoid about its burgeoning trade deficit in foods, and the fertilisers and pesticides needed to sustain yields.
As Columbia University history professor Adam Tooze notes, China has created “a dramatically new food system for one sixth of humanity” but this has come at the expense of self-reliance: “An import dependence on the scale of China’s for something as basic as protein is a vulnerability.”
This vulnerability has nagged away at Xi since he came to power, as imports shifted from being a buffer to the backbone of the country’s food. In a famous speech in December 2013, he warned: “The rice bowls of the Chinese people must be firmly in our own hands. Our rice bowls should be filled mainly by Chinese crops.”


Most of China’s production is to ensure food security but such is its size that even tiny fluctuations into surplus or shortfall create tsunamis in international food trade.
As Systemiq’s paper makes clear, China has good reason to strive for food self-sufficiency, but the more clearly it succeeds, the more dramatic the implications for countries that rely on agricultural exports. Systemiq projects Chinese surpluses of poultry, dairy, eggs and aquaculture products by 2040, and popularisation of “cultivated meats” cutting import demand for pork and beef in the 2040s.
The implications for the world’s current leading food exporters are clear. Just as German carmakers are in a sweat over China’s fast-emerging, world-beating electric vehicle sector, a similar fate looms for today’s leading food exporters. Systemiq suggests 2026 may be year zero of China’s transformation of the global food system. We have been warned.


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China

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China Economy

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Imagine China applying the same industry policy playbook for electric cars, solar panels and AI to agriculture and food self-sufficiency


Imagine China applying the same industry policy playbook for electric cars, solar panels and AI to agriculture and food self-sufficiency.


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Brazil

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Inside Out & Outside In

Xi Jinping

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Outside In

Prepare for ‘China shock 3.0’ to the global food economy

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Imagine China applying the same industry policy playbook for electric cars, solar panels and AI to agriculture and food self-sufficiency

Imagine China applying the same industry policy playbook for electric cars, solar panels and AI to agriculture and food self-sufficiency