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Opinion
China can offer Gulf states more than just a security umbrella
As threat perceptions reset, Gulf states are likely to pursue a dual track of restrained regional policy and diversified partnerships
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Burak Elmali is a researcher at TRT World Research Centre in Istanbul.
The Iran war has delivered a systemic shock to the Gulf’s security architecture and economic miracle. Two taboos were rapidly broken. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and close to a quarter of seaborne crude, was paralysed for sustained periods. Iranian strikes reached deep into Gulf territory, hitting ports, energy terminals and airports with a frequency that exceeded attacks on Israel.
War-risk insurance premiums and tanker charter rates surged across key Gulf routes. Benchmark crude prices climbed above US$110 per barrel. Maritime traffic plunged by over 95 per cent, with notable drops in port and terminal activity across the Gulf, while delays in liquefied natural gas cargoes tightened Asian spot markets.
For Gulf economies that have spent the past decade investing heavily in logistics, tourism, advanced manufacturing and a green transition, the episode felt existential. The shock exposed the fragility of a model that relied on steady investment flows, uninterrupted maritime flows and a presumed security guarantee. With 13 US bases across the wider region nearly uninhabitable, the US protection umbrella has turned out to be a mirage.
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