OpinionUS war on Iran presents a complex strategic challenge for China

The US military strike against Iran is, by most accounts, a war of choice. Most policy analysts believe Iran poses no imminent threat to the United States. President Donald Trump’s decision appears partly intended to offset the political fallout from setbacks in his tariff policies and reinforce his image as a strongman president.

Trump is believed to have been encouraged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wage war. US military preparations for the operation appear limited and there are conflicting signals in Washington about the campaign’s ultimate objectives. Trump has suggested the attack aimed to bring about regime change in Iran and even implied he would play a role in shaping its leadership. By contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted regime change was not the goal.

The conflict carries significant implications for US-China relations. Since the beginning of this year, the Trump administration has used force against Venezuela and Iran – widely viewed as partners of China. More importantly, both play critical roles in Beijing’s efforts to safeguard its energy security. The US capture of Nicolas Maduro and decapitation strike targeting Ali Khamenei have been particularly unwelcome in Beijing.

Chinese analysts are acutely aware of Trump’s mounting difficulties. Among US allies, France and Spain have said the war violated international law. Nato members have not rallied to Washington’s side; European nations, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy, have rejected Trump’s call for help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Australia and Japan also do not plan to send warships.