Beijing must be clear-eyed about its national interests abroad

US President Donald Trump is bringing back the law of the jungle to the world as he systematically dismantles the post-war rules-based international order built and forged by the United States and its allies. His speech last month at Davos, Switzerland, contained a blunt message: the US was done “keeping the whole world afloat”, where “everybody took advantage of the United States”. Trump is unabashed about what he wants. He flexed American muscle and ignored international norms by abducting Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, demanding the acquisition of Greenland and threatening to bomb Iran over the killing of several thousand protesters. Exasperated over the ever-widening rift with the US, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged middle powers to unite in countering the rise of hard power and great power rivalry but offered little in the way of concrete clues on how to achieve this goal, given the disarray among Western allies. Amid this great uncertainty, China has been widely hailed as a winner. Last month, Trump signalled a further retreat from the international stage by withdrawing the US from 66 international organisations, including various UN entities focused on climate, health and development. January was not even out but China could not resist the temptation: Xinhua News Agency published a long article on January 25 hailing President Xi Jinping’s credentials as a world leader trying to bring countries together. Last month, Xi received prime ministers from Ireland, Canada, Finland and the UK, plus other foreign leaders, stressing the importance of multilateralism, global trade and international law. China’s image and credentials as a responsible superpower have been further strengthened as Trump continues to push his “America first” agenda abroad. Beijing is stepping into leadership vacuums created by US withdrawals, particularly in multilateral forums like the World Health Organization and climate-focused institutions, as China ramps up its role in health diplomacy and environmental governance. This positions China to boost its soft power significantly in the Global South, where many nations seek alternatives to Western-led institutions and view Beijing as a reliable partner for development, infrastructure and cooperation without political strings. But Beijing should remain clear-eyed about its own priorities as the world enters a new phase of greater uncertainty and upheaval. In fact, Trump’s recent activities, involving Venezuela, Greenland and Iran, should provide much food for thought for China’s foreign relations, military strategy and foreign trade and investment priorities, especially in its Belt and Road Initiative. There are at least three major lessons Beijing can learn. First, China should review its belt and road priorities and ensure that future investments are in countries or areas where its military reach can cover them. Maduro’s abduction should sound a resounding alarm for China’s leadership. US intervention has placed billions of dollars in Chinese oil-for-loan debts at risk. Over the past two decades, China has funnelled about US$60 billion in loans to Venezuela, much of it repaid with crude oil shipments. But according to some analysts, Beijing’s outstanding exposure in the South American nation, estimated at about US$10 billion, is now at the mercy of the US. While Trump has indicated his willingness to allow Venezuelan oil to be sold to China, the fact that its massive investments could be at risk should serve as a wake-up call. Over the past two decades, to feed its hunger for energy and raw materials, China has invested heavily in resource-rich but high-risk countries in Africa, Latin America and some former Soviet republics in Central Asia. These investments have already faced inherent dangers in some of those countries, where coups or rising nationalist anger against foreign investment could put projects in jeopardy. China’s investments in high-risk countries are mostly due to a lack of better alternatives. Western companies already monopolise many lucrative sources of energy or raw materials in the more stable countries. Second, China must reconsider its military strategy in light of the US maintaining hundreds of overseas military bases around the world, while China’s only military base overseas is in Djibouti. There have been suggestions China is eyeing two more bases, one at Jiwani, Pakistan, and another at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. However, there has been no official confirmation. Until now, China has remained restrained in expanding its military capabilities abroad, not least because it has benefited from the old rules-based order underpinned by international laws and norms. With the US bringing back the law of the jungle, Beijing must recalibrate its strategy. With greater military capabilities at its disposal, China should not hesitate to use its military arm to protect its economic interests. That means building more military bases. While this may take years, China should consider expanding its engagement with private security companies by encouraging the recruitment of armed forces veterans to protect overseas investments. Third, as China’s expansion of military capabilities remains limited, Beijing should redouble its efforts by focusing major investments in the neighbouring regions, such as Southeast Asia. Since 2020, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been China’s largest trading partner, while China has been Asean’s top trading partner since 2009. Beijing should also try harder to improve ties with India, which is now the world’s most populous country, to foster greater regional stability and cooperation. In this landscape, China must balance its commitment to peaceful development with pragmatic safeguards for its growing global footprint. Trump’s actions have created both risks and opportunities, which demand strategic adaptation to protect core interests.

Beijing must be clear-eyed about its national interests abroad

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As the US disrupts international norms, China should reconsider its place in the world system to protect its overseas investments

As the US disrupts international norms, China should reconsider its place in the world system to protect its overseas investments