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Wang Xiangwei

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a growing chorus of Chinese officials and analysts have talked of an unprecedented window of opportunity for Beijing to recalibrate its domestic and international strategies. At its heart lies the Taiwan question, a perennial flashpoint in relations between Washington and Beijing.
As the Trump administration ramps up its “America first” policies abroad, the US – the self-appointed world’s policeman for seven decades – has embarked on an unprecedented retreat from global commitments and treaties.
More critically, Trump’s signature transactional diplomacy has ignited imaginations in China, especially among nationalists who see the moment as ripe for Beijing to pursue reunification with Taiwan.
This backdrop provides context for the China-Japan tensions, preceded and followed by high-level US-China exchanges.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch US ally, recently suggested that Tokyo could respond militarily if Beijing moved on Taiwan. Her remarks prompted a backlash from Beijing. The dynamics unfolding in the coming months could reshape geopolitics across the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
Speculation about Beijing’s intentions towards Taiwan has surged since President Xi Jinping assumed power in late 2012. Xi has intensified Chinese drills in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Things escalated after William Lai Ching-te – known for his pro-independence proclivities – took over as Taiwan’s leader in 2024, prompting more frequent and expansive mainland exercises.


The US remains Beijing’s chief obstacle, bolstering Taiwan through consistent arms sales and the Taiwan Relations Act.
Since formalising diplomatic ties with China in 1979, Washington has navigated the issue with calculated ambiguity. Chinese leaders have consistently invoked the one-China principle, urging reduced US support for the island.
In response, the US endorses a “one-China policy” that acknowledges Beijing’s position without endorsing it, while maintaining strategic vagueness on potential intervention in a cross-strait conflict.
As Taiwan represents one of Washington’s strongest leverage points against Beijing, relinquishing it has seemed improbable, until now.




Trump’s dismissive rhetoric towards Taiwan – accusing it of stealing America’s semiconductor dominance – has emboldened Beijing’s hawks. To them, Trump’s world view prioritises bilateral horse trading over ideological crusades, viewing alliances as transactional burdens rather than sacred oaths.
Against this evolving US-China landscape, Beijing’s recent orchestrated signals on Taiwan, alongside its sharp rebukes of Japan, warrant close scrutiny.
One notable cue came in September, when China’s state broadcaster aired a prime-time 39-episode drama, Silent Honour, chronicling the real-life exploits of Wu Shi, a Communist Party spy embedded in Taiwan’s military. It subtly glorified infiltration and subversion as paths to unity.
In October, China’s fourth plenum communique mentioned the phrase “advance the cause of national reunification”. Omitted from last year’s document, this has further stoked speculation.


The same month, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee designated October 25 as the Commemoration Day of Taiwan’s Restoration, marking the end of Japanese rule and Taiwan’s return to Chinese sovereignty in 1945. Meanwhile, a series of commentaries written under a pseudonym outlined the supposed benefits of peaceful reunification.
An even more telling signal emerged on October 30, in Busan, South Korea, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. There, Xi and Trump convened for their first face-to-face meeting in six years, which both sides described as successful. Strikingly, Taiwan was reportedly omitted from the agenda.
Accounts from Xinhua and Trump said the island wasn’t discussed, a tactical silence that could signal pragmatism, anchored by a focus on trade, or deliberate ambiguity to avoid crossing red lines. One thing is certain: Trump’s gaze lingered on exports and minerals, not maps of the strait.
Trump’s reticence may have prompted Takaichi’s statement, which broke Japan’s long-standing ambiguity by affirming potential military involvement in a Taiwan crisis.

Beijing’s response was immediate and vehement: fiery denunciations, a reported reimposed ban on Japanese seafood imports and calls for Chinese tourists to shun Japan.
As Takaichi stands firm, the rhetoric persists. On November 23, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused Tokyo of crossing a red line and warned against a “resurgence of Japanese militarism”.
Then, during a phone call with Trump, Xi “underscored that Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order”. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s account of the call, Trump noted that “the US understands how important the Taiwan question” is to Beijing.
However, in his Truth Social post about the call, Trump omitted any mention of Taiwan or the Beijing-Tokyo rift, which has surely frayed nerves in Tokyo and Taipei. Trump later phoned Takaichi, reportedly urging her to dial down the volume in the crisis.

This intervention, paired with his relative silence on Taiwan and on the diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo speaks volumes about Trump’s priorities. It aligns with plans for Trump to visit China in April, likely to be reciprocated by Xi visiting the US later.
Under these conditions, Xi could leverage such summits to coax Trump into softening US backing for Taiwan – perhaps in exchange for a sweeping economic pact. This might afford Beijing fresh leverage to constrict Taiwan’s options and erode islanders’ resolve, especially amid deepening domestic political divisions.
In The Art of War, China’s ancient strategist Sun Tzu writes, “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence.”
There is little doubt that rumours of a potential military push for reunification will continue to swirl. Trump has said publicly Xi promised not to take military action during his term, but Beijing did not acknowledge such a promise.
But Trump’s window could herald a subtler avenue – one of pressure and isolation until Taiwan runs out of options.


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US-China relations

Trump’s world view offers Beijing a window of opportunity on Taiwan

Illustration: Craig Stephens

Tourists from China head into a store in the Ginza shopping district of Tokyo, Japan, on November 22. Photo: AFP

Pedestrians and riders pass through a street with Taiwanese flags in Quemoy on October 29. Photo: AFP

Xi makes clear Taiwan belongs to China in post-war world order

Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump discussed bilateral cooperation and the issue of Taiwan in a phone call on Monday Photos: AFP

How a Beijing-Tokyo deep freeze over Taiwan could harden Takaichi’s grip on power

Speculation has grown that Japan’s new prime minister could tighten her hold on power should relations between Beijing and Tokyo remain frosty. Photo: Kyodo

Beijing demands clarity from Japan on one-China principle as diplomatic row escalates

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (centre) has said she “didn’t intend to mention any specifics” about Taiwan when asked about her controversial comments that sparked a diplomatic row with Beijing. Photo: EPA

Beijing says US initiated Trump-Xi call, which was ‘positive, friendly and constructive’

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the telephone on Monday. Photo: AFP

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea in late October, their first in-person sit-down since 2019. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

China Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

China

Asia

East Asia

Diplomacy

As the US reframes the dynamics between allies and adversaries, Beijing may see an opportunity to advance its cross-strait goals


As the US reframes the dynamics between allies and adversaries, Beijing may see an opportunity to advance its cross-strait goals.


Taiwan

Donald Trump

Xi Jinping

Defence

War and conflict

William Lai Ching-te

Sanae Takaichi

Japan

United States

Wang Yi

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Trump’s world view offers Beijing a window of opportunity on Taiwan

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As the US reframes the dynamics between allies and adversaries, Beijing may see an opportunity to advance its cross-strait goals

As the US reframes the dynamics between allies and adversaries, Beijing may see an opportunity to advance its cross-strait goals