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Taiwan
OpinionChina Opinion
Dong Lei

Opinion | Taiwan must exercise restraint, not engage in political theatre

Taipei’s current trajectory – refusing dialogue, consolidating power, courting Western applause – risks everything

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A view of a bridge in Kinmen, against the backdrop of Xiamen, on October 28. Kinmen has long been on the front line of Taiwan Strait tensions. Photo: AFP

Only fools fail to see how very brittle our world is. Technological upheaval, climate instability and geopolitical entropy have rendered the international order fragile. Institutional trust is eroding. In such a time, the wisest act may be restraint.

Yet on November 7 in Brussels, the Taiwanese vice-president stood before a body that styles itself as the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) and laid out her views on the dangers of mainland China.
Around the same time in Tokyo, Japan’s new prime minister declared that a mainland Chinese strike on Taiwan could justify Japanese military action. These are not gestures of ambiguity. They are signals – clear, public and provocative.
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From Beijing’s perspective, the choreography looks coordinated. Taiwan courts applause, Japan signals readiness and both actions unfold within hours of each other. It feels like encirclement. The symbolism matters. The timing of the two moves counts and the message has been received.

But Beijing ought not overthink things. Today, most major powers are preoccupied with deep structural problems. Europe is internally divided and external pressures have led to its first major rearming since the second world war. The United States is deeply fractured. Russia and Ukraine are locked in territorial absolutism. Japan is hedging. These dancers may share a stage, but they do not share a strategy.
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Whether one sees the Taiwanese vice-president’s appearance in Brussels as historic, it was certainly meant to be incendiary to Beijing.

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