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Richard Heydarian

In a fast and furious year of devastating wars and high-stakes diplomacy, the historic meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands out as a potential harbinger of a new global order.
In his first visit to China in seven years, Modi agreed with Xi that Asia’s two powers should be “partners” rather than “rivals”, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin.
Modi stressed that “their differences should not turn into disputes” and expressed a commitment to the “fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement” of their border dispute. Crucially, he mentioned the need to “pursue strategic autonomy” and not allow bilateral relations to be “seen through a third country lens”. He also invited Xi to next year’s Brics summit in India.
Both leaders envisioned Sino-Indian ties as an anchor of a multipolar order and a new Asian century.
Xi reiterated the importance of both countries’ roles in the Global South, especially when it comes to “promoting the solidarity and rejuvenation of developing countries”. Marking the 75th anniversary of China-India diplomatic ties, Xi called for nothing less than a “cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant”.
The two nations are set to resume direct flights this month for the first time in five years, underscoring a shared commitment to improving bilateral relations. Modi’s warm embrace of China was certainly a subtle jab at US President Donald Trump, who has adopted an unexpectedly tough stance on India. But it also represents a chance for India to reset historically fraught ties with China as it strives to forge a coalition of eastern powers against an increasingly hostile West.

The tone and timing of the India-China rapprochement is quite telling, arriving on the heels of rising tensions between New Delhi and Washington after years of a blossoming strategic partnership. In contrast to his warm relationship with Modi during his first term, Trump has adopted an increasingly hostile stance that has caught some by surprise.
Despite a seemingly successful trip to the White House earlier this year, Modi has grappled with a succession of setbacks, including Trump’s crackdown on high-earning Indian migrant workers employed under the H-1B visa programme. To put things into perspective, Indians alone account for over 70 per cent of all H-1B visa holders in the US. In 2024, as many as 285,000 H-1B visas went to Indian nationals, who send billions of dollars in remittances back home.
Trump also humiliated New Delhi when he took credit for brokering a ceasefire amid the latest India-Pakistan war. This was followed by Trump’s meeting with Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir, who flattered Trump by nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Moreover, New Delhi’s claim that it had shot down Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets suggests that Washington had not prohibited Islamabad from using American weapons. If anything, Washington is set to provide new missiles for Pakistan’s prized US-made fighters.

The decisive factor, however, was Trump’s decision to impose a hefty 50 per cent tariff on Indian exports, which is much higher than US tariffs on other major Asian economies. The Trump administration has sought to justify the move by citing India’s energy cooperation with Russia, even as US allies like Turkey also import energy from the Kremlin.
India’s pivot towards China clearly has a tactical dimension, signalling displeasure with the US. Modi now has a second chance to reorient the trajectory of one of the most consequential bilateral relationships of the 21st century.
A flare-up of the two countries’ border dispute torpedoed Modi’s initial charm offensive, which included retreats with top Chinese leaders in the 2010s. Thus, it is crucial for the two Asian powers to explore a durable de-escalation mechanism, including a freeze on any new major deployments or military build-ups.
Given that both India and China are rising naval powers, both sides must adopt strategic patience as they build up a naval presence in each other’s maritime backyards.

Inevitably, India and China must also reassess how far they’re willing to continue arming each other’s rivals, as is the case with China’s defence transfers to Pakistan and India’s strategic weapons exports to Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea. At the very least, both sides can explore joint naval drills and other confidence-building measures. Russia, which has friendly ties with both sides, can also serve as a key mediator.
In the meantime, India and China will have to reverse half a decade of economic decoupling, such as New Delhi’s ban on Chinese apps like TikTok. While bilateral trade has been relatively robust, reaching US$136 billion in 2023, there is a lack of two-way investment. Chinese manufacturing, tech cooperation and joint infrastructure projects across the region and beyond could help ease structural tensions and fuel sustained economic development in India.
This is crucial as India’s strategic insecurity ultimately stems from the gap between the country’s economic size and its defence spending, which contrasts with China’s, despite the two countries having similar population sizes.
As the more developed and powerful partner, Beijing is in a relatively strong position to entice its South Asian counterpart through large-scale investments, military de-escalation and robust confidence-building measures. Ultimately, the two Asian giants can jointly underwrite a new global order that boosts the strategic autonomy and long-term development of rising powers and the broader Global South.


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As Washington pushes New Delhi closer to Beijing, both Asian powers must exercise strategic patience for an effective detente


As Washington pushes New Delhi closer to Beijing, both Asian powers must exercise strategic patience for an effective detente.


China-India relations

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Asim Munir

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Why India is hedging its bets on another China charm offensive

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As Washington pushes New Delhi closer to Beijing, both Asian powers must exercise strategic patience for an effective detente

As Washington pushes New Delhi closer to Beijing, both Asian powers must exercise strategic patience for an effective detente