Opinion | Why Taiwan doesn’t need to panic over Trump just yet
The US’ decision not to allow Taiwan’s leader to transit through the country has sparked worry in Taipei, but there have been reassuring developments too
US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has undoubtedly put Taiwan on edge. His mistreatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office at the end of February, coupled with his prickly and mercurial attitude toward US allies and partners worldwide, has been a real wake-up call for Taipei. But the second Trump administration had not significantly deviated from the cross-strait policies of past presidencies – until recently.
Two weeks ago, the big headline was that the Trump administration had reportedly cancelled Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te’s transit privileges through the United States en route to Paraguay, Guatemala and Belize. Despite the lack of US diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, it is customary for Washington to authorise Taiwanese leaders to briefly set foot on US soil and transfer to their next flight; sometimes they are also allowed to meet senior American officials and give speeches.
In this case, Lai was going to stop in New York and Dallas, but for unclear reasons, the Trump administration felt uncomfortable with his itinerary. The most likely reason is that Trump sought to avoid the poor optics of supporting Taiwan amid sensitive trade negotiations with Beijing. However, the Trump team never gave an explanation.
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Another bad news story for Taiwan, though less mainstream than the first, happened about two months ago but was only first reported in late July. Wellington Koo, Taiwan’s defence chief, had been scheduled to meet Elbridge Colby, US undersecretary of defence for policy, in June, but Washington reportedly called off the meeting saying the timing was bad because of the US strikes on Iran. The talks are yet to take place. The Taiwanese side remains concerned that Washington is beginning to soften its stance on Beijing at Taipei’s expense.
A final worrisome moment pertained to trade. The Trump administration announced that Taiwan’s new reciprocal tariff rate would be 20 per cent. Although this was down from Trump’s initial 32 per cent rate, Lai was displeased, saying: “The 20 per cent tariff rate was never Taiwan’s target to begin with. We will continue negotiations and strive for a rate that’s more favourable for Taiwan.”
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company had already pledged US$100 billion to invest in the US to manufacture semiconductor chips, but the result was still unsatisfactory. Sustained trade frictions have led many in Taiwan to wonder whether an inability to get along economically could eventually convince the US to abandon the island.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company founder Morris Chang speaks at the company’s new facility in Phoenix, Arizona, on December 6, 2022. TSMC has announced plans for a US$100 billion investment in the US on top of US$65 billion pledged for three plants in the state of Arizona. Photo: AP
