Opinion | Under Trump, is the US no longer interested in playing maritime referee?

For decades, the US Navy’s annual Freedom of Navigation Report has served as a key document of US maritime policy, detailing naval challenges to what Washington views as the “excessive maritime claims” of various coastal states, particularly China.

The conspicuous absence of the annual report for the US fiscal year 2024, still unpublished as of August 10, is a telling indicator of the seemingly shifting strategic priorities under US President Donald Trump’s second term. Its notable delay, combined with the absence of confirmed reports of South China Sea freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) since Trump’s return to the White House, points to a significant recalibration of US maritime policy.

Together, these factors suggest a deliberate, if unacknowledged, retreat from the US’ traditional role as the primary enforcer of the so-called rules-based international maritime order, particularly in the South China Sea. Since taking office for a second term in January this year, Trump has been preoccupied by high-stakes geopolitical challenges, leaving little room for sustained engagement in the South China Sea.

Historical records of the US’ FONOPs also underscore this strategic shift. During Trump’s first term, the US Navy conducted an average of seven FONOPs a year that targeted China, challenging China’s “excessive maritime claims”, totalling at least 27 operations from May 2017 to December 2020. By contrast, the first six months of his second term have witnessed zero confirmed reports of FONOPs in the South China Sea.

This inactivity coincides with the delay of the annual report for fiscal year 2024, which now exceeds even the Covid-19 related postponement of the release of the annual report for fiscal year 2019 in July 2020. This leads to an unmistakable assertion that maritime issues have fallen sharply on Trump’s list of strategic priorities, at least in the South China Sea.