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Jersey Lee

Before Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, there was broad uncertainty over how he might approach China and how the Chinese might respond. Two months in, the picture remains just as murky.
Initially, it appeared there was a consensus that Trump could continue and perhaps even ramp up his predecessor Joe Biden’s policies of competition against China, essentially a continuation of Trump’s own policies from his first term. Conversely, Harvard professor Graham Allison noted that Trump had uniquely praised China on the campaign trail. Allison suggested Trump genuinely wanted to improve bilateral ties.
Since then, it seems Allison has been vindicated. Trump’s relative pivot away from defending Ukraine has forced some to consider the possibility of a similar scenario befalling Taiwan.
Meanwhile, he has given TikTok a lifeline, defunded programmes that Beijing has criticised as instruments of colour revolutions and identified China as a potential diplomatic partner.
However, Trump has also slapped a 20 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, prompting countermeasures from Beijing. China has also declared it is ready for “any type of war”. Trump merely brushed aside those comments, however, insisting he has a “very good relationship” with President Xi Jinping.
During a phone call with Xi before his inauguration, Trump raised issues such as trade, fentanyl and TikTok. Xi expressed opposition to “confrontation and conflict” and advocated for “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation”. While Trump claims to have spoken to Xi since taking office, the administration has shared no details of the alleged conversation. There has been no confirmation from Beijing, either.


Accordingly, one of the first major post-inauguration opportunities for China and the US to size each other up came last week when Chinese Premier Li Qiang met visiting US senator Steve Daines, who travelled to Beijing to promote Trump’s agenda.
Daines told the Wall Street Journal that “this was the first step to an important next step, which will be a meeting between President Xi and President Trump”. However, neither side mentioned any discussions geared towards such a meeting.
Despite reports in China welcoming some of Trump’s actions, nothing indicates a receptive response to his broader strategic proposals. Why might China be reluctant to respond to Trump’s seemingly positive overtures?
Beijing may well have concerns about Trump’s seemingly unhinged foreign policy. In response to the US implementing tariffs on China over fentanyl – while simultaneously seeking improved relations – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi bluntly remarked that “no country should fantasise that it can suppress China and maintain good relations with China at the same time. Such two-faced acts are not good for the stability of bilateral relations, or for building mutual trust.”


Before making any major moves, China is content to wait for Trump to show his hand first. While Beijing had strong words about Trump’s tariffs, the remarks seem designed more for show and deterrence. Chinese economist Li Daokui recently said that because China had most likely been preparing for the tariff war, it is “no longer a big issue”.
However, Beijing is not sitting idly by waiting for relations to worsen. After meeting Daines, Li signed an order strengthening countermeasures against foreign sanctions to safeguard China’s interests, regardless of how events unfold.
Ultimately, China’s caution reflects an important theme in its foreign policy doctrine: strategic focus. This means pursuing a long-term strategic vision while making all relevant decisions with that future in mind. For the Communist Party, this concept involves remaining unshaken by external circumstances, unmoved by the currents of change, and composed even in the face of crisis




There are two advantages to this approach. The first can be summed up by the saying, “never interrupt your opponent when they’re making a mistake”. The second is perhaps best described with the Chinese expression “seizing the moment to strike back”. That is, China probably doesn’t know what Trump wants, and by waiting for him to reveal his intentions, Beijing will have a better idea of how to respond.
There are certainly risks to such an approach. Trump might become impatient and change tactics. However, China knows better than to trust anything the US says, particularly with Trump in office, who is – among other things – busy tearing up his own United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
It is important to note that having a strategic focus does not mean doing nothing while waiting. As China builds new sources of leverage, such as strengthening laws against sanctions, Trump is squandering America’s own leverage by choosing to punish allies.
In recent weeks, China has been keen to emphasise that it is “a pillar of stability” in a world of growing instability. It is clear just who Beijing sees as the source of this instability.
Former senior colonel Zhou Bo summed it up to me this way: “Trump is a mercurial character; we can’t say for now whether his overtures to China are temporary while he’s busy with other matters or whether it would lead to anything down the line. For example, unless [the Trump administration] is for talks on no first use of nuclear weapons, it is highly unlikely that China will talk to him about nuclear disarmament.”
Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, noted that the uncertainty surround Trump’s rapidly changing positions is leading China to “prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
It’s clear that any attempt by Trump at a broader strategic realignment is being undermined by his lack of consistent strategic focus.


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Opinion

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World Opinion

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World

China

Diplomacy

While Trump appears willing to improve ties, Chinese policymakers are likely to be more focused on understanding his true intentions


While Trump appears willing to improve ties, Chinese policymakers are likely to be more focused on understanding his true intentions.


Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s China policy

US-China trade war

China tariffs

China trade

Trade

US-ally trade wars

Nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)

Li Qiang

Wang Yi

Xi Jinping

Ukraine war

Taiwan

War and conflict

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


As the White House sends mixed signals, Beijing bides its time

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While Trump appears willing to improve ties, Chinese policymakers are likely to be more focused on understanding his true intentions

While Trump appears willing to improve ties, Chinese policymakers are likely to be more focused on understanding his true intentions