Opinion | China will survive Trump’s trade war – it’s done it before

Tariffs have not only failed to curb China’s growth, they have also inadvertently helped the country’s domestic economic strategy

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Employees make drones intended for export at a factory in Ruichang, Jiangxi province on November 27, 2024. Photo: AFP

Published: 5:30am, 16 Feb 2025

Just days after US President Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, Canada and Mexico reached a deal appeasing the US in exchange for a one-month suspension of the tariffs.

China responded with multiple countermeasures: a 15 per cent tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10 per cent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and pickup trucks. Beijing also implemented export controls on rare earth elements such as tungsten and tellurium. China included PVH Group and Illumina on its “unreliable entity list”. Lastly, Beijing launched an antitrust investigation into Google.

China did not back down. Instead, Beijing introduced tougher, more precise and diversified countermeasures. The fundamental reason is that after nearly eight years of trade conflict, China has grown more confident, strategic and resilient.

After Trump launched the trade war in 2018, Chinese exports to the US have faced tariffs of around 19 per cent. By now, the Chinese public is accustomed to trade disputes and an extra 10 per cent tariff hardly comes as a shock.

Looking at the long-term impact, the objectives Trump set out to achieve in 2018 have largely gone unmet.

According to the US Bureau of Industry and Security, US-China trade was worth around US$659.8 billion in 2018, and the US trade deficit was US$419.2 billion. Based on Office of the US Trade Representative figures, bilateral trade was estimated at US$582.4 billion in 2024, with Washington still recording a trade deficit in goods with Beijing, at US$295.4 billion.