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Richard Black

Imagine that our world was in the middle of a global pandemic. Now imagine that, in the middle of this pandemic, one country was producing abundant supplies of a proven vaccine but other governments were choosing not to use it. Not only that but imagine that some of those governments instead complained about supposed overproduction and imposed tariffs on imports of the cheap vaccine.
Many adjectives might be used to describe such a situation, and perhaps “crazy” would be the politest of them.
Yet this is the situation we find ourselves in now regarding solar power. The only sure-fire way to arrest climate change involves changing our energy system away from fossil fuels towards non-polluting alternatives. Of these non-polluting choices, solar power is one of the cheapest, costing on average about half as much as new fossil fuel generation.
It can be deployed at any scale from household rooftops to giant solar farms, and brings with it benefits including greater energy access in the poorest countries, energy independence, and freedom from the fossil fuel price roller coaster. It is far from being a complete solution to climate change – but it is one heck of a start.
Solar panels are now cheaper than they have ever been, mainly because Chinese companies have invested copiously in large state-of-the-art factories. Innovation plus competition plus economies of scale lead to record high output and record low prices. But use is lagging behind supply. On current estimates, fewer than half of the solar panels that could be produced between now and 2030 will be deployed. The mismatch between supply and demand has brought prices lower.
At the 2023 United Nations climate change summit in Dubai, governments agreed that the global capacity of renewable electricity generation should triple by 2030, as a crucial step towards reducing fossil fuel use quickly enough to keep global warming below the Paris Agreement ceiling of 1.5 degrees Celsius. And all governments know, because it is absolutely no secret, that the fastest-expanding renewable energy technology is solar.


Against this backdrop, you would think that governments would now be seizing on the glut of cheap, easily available solar panels. There are no supply constraints or safety issues, and the panels are so cheap as to render the climate contrarians’ argument about renewable energy being expensive utterly laughable.
Yet this is not the reaction we are seeing across the Western world. The US imposed trade barriers years ago and is now also placing tariffs on imports from third countries where Chinese companies set up factories. Presumably, the US will go further under the second Trump presidency. In the European Union, the rhetoric centres on “overproduction” and “dumping” instead of importing a cheap supply of something that’s needed rather quickly. However, governments have so far drawn the line at sanctions.
Although the US under Donald Trump is vanishingly unlikely to stand for supporting global development and decarbonisation, Europe does. Last year European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU wants to “work with our partners on global issues like trade, finance, climate, sustainable development or health”, and put a constructive relationship with China at the heart of that vision.
One presumes also that the EU values its relationship across the broader developing world, much of which once felt the heavy colonial hands of European nations. Speeding the clean energy transition sits naturally at the heart of this vision.


Many developing countries want to adopt clean energy. The African Union, for example, aims to have 300 gigawatts of renewable capacity installed by 2030 – a fourfold jump from today’s levels. The rationale is not just climate change-related. More than half a billion people in Africa lack basic electricity access, severely compromising their development.
Indonesia aims to achieve 25 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 but remains below 15 per cent. Pakistan, the Philippines and Bangladesh are among other Asian countries that have yet to reach their renewable targets. Affordable technology is critical for these countries to fulfil their clean energy goals. China is the obvious supplier.
Against this backdrop, getting serious about China’s solar overproduction is a no-brainer. Ember’s calculations illustrate the scale of the benefits available. Deploying all of the solar panel production available in the coming years would see governments meeting their target of tripling renewable capacity a year ahead of schedule. Just one-seventh of it would be enough to bring a basic level of electricity access to all people around the world who currently lack it.


It seems that China is planning to act on this vision. At last year’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Beijing committed to implementing a “special project” for the continent in clean energy. While there is a domestic benefit to this approach, the diplomatic advantages China stands to reap are also huge.
Surely, Europe also has an interest in working with China on sustainable development and the fight against climate change while claiming a share of the diplomatic rewards that success will bring.
The process begins with a change of framing. An abundance of a cheap, proven vaccine during a pandemic is not a problem but the start of a solution. Erecting barriers to widespread deployment would be ridiculous.
What’s true for the vaccine holds for solar power. If governments are serious about development in the Global South and addressing climate change, the case for utilising every resource we have is surely irrefutable.


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Despite apprehension from some governments, the benefits of China’s green technology oversupply can be deployed for the greater good


Despite apprehension from some governments, the benefits of China’s green technology oversupply can be deployed for the greater good.


We wouldn’t slap tariffs on vaccines. Why would we on solar panels?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite apprehension from some governments, the benefits of China’s green technology oversupply can be deployed for the greater good

Despite apprehension from some governments, the benefits of China’s green technology oversupply can be deployed for the greater good