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Nikola Mikovic

As major global powers intensify their focus on Central Asia, China seeks to strengthen its position in the strategically important region. Energy and logistics seem to be leading drivers of Beijing’s policy in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. But how do Central Asian states see the growing Chinese presence in their region?
The five Central Asian states have played a crucial role in the China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the project seems to have become even more important to Beijing, as it seeks alternative transport and logistics routes that bypass Russia.
That is why Chinese strategic planners are pushing for the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. Kyrgyz Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov has been quoted as saying that construction will begin this month and will be completed within four to five years.
To implement the US$8 billion project, Beijing, Bishkek and Tashkent have agreed to create a joint company, with China owning 51 per cent and a 24.5 per cent share each going to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Japarov reportedly said the railway will transform the landlocked former Soviet republic from a “dead-end country” into a transit state. He has stressed the potential benefits of the railway, such as access to the ocean via a shorter route and increased trade with Europe and the Middle East.
Neighbouring Uzbekistan also wants to become a key logistics hub between Asia and Europe. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will pave the way for that goal. Uzbek transport minister Ilkhom Makhkamov has noted that, because Central Asian nations do not have direct access to sea transport, they are cut off from the most economically lucrative transport routes. Countries in the region are thus focused on the development of transport infrastructure.

For China, the development of transport networks in the region is just a small part of its Central Asia strategy. Beijing also sees Central Asia as a zone of vital interest due to the region’s natural resources such as oil and gas. But so does Russia. Meanwhile, the European Union also seeks to strengthen economic ties with the five Central Asian states.
Therefore, China will have to compete for influence in nations that have traditionally been in Russia’s geopolitical orbit. Amid Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine, Central Asian countries have started to drift away from Russia and look to developing closer relations with the West. However, geography gives Beijing a significant advantage over Western countries.
While the EU hopes to purchase “green electricity” from Central Asian nations, China is more likely to benefit from building renewable energy infrastructure in the region.
China Power International Holding has already built the Zhanatas wind farm in Kazakhstan. It is the largest wind power project in Central Asia built by a Chinese firm, consisting of 40 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 2.5 megawatts. China reached an agreement with Uzbekistan to build renewable energy facilities, with potentially up to US$6 billion in investment.

“Promoting green development and building a common home” – the theme of the 11th China-Central Asia Cooperation Forum held in Yinchuan in northwest China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region last month – seems to be one of Beijing’s major goals in Central Asia. As China helps countries in Central Asia develop infrastructure for renewable energy, it is also seeking to gain from the region’s reserves of natural gas and oil.
Turkmenistan, the largest natural gas supplier to China, undoubtedly holds a special place in Beijing’s strategy towards Central Asia.
China also aims to deepen energy ties with Kazakhstan. The country’s national oil and gas company, KazMunayGas, announced a geological exploration deal with China National Offshore Oil Corporation. It has also been reported that KazMunayGas and a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation have signed a confidentiality agreement and a plan for joint geological exploration in Kazakhstan’s Aktobe region.
It is clear that China wants to ensure its own energy security by establishing reliable gas and oil supplies from Central Asian countries. Meanwhile, Beijing is also trying to boost its image among countries in the region. For example, China has offered scholarships to students from Central Asia and held seminars including delegations from the region.

More importantly, to strengthen its economic presence and increase its influence in the region, Beijing has reportedly opened eight “green channels” in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, allowing its Central Asian neighbours to export more than 90 types of agricultural and food products to the Chinese market.
There are also reports that, by 2026, China plans to open a new industrial zone in Uzbekistan with 20 companies specialising in electrical equipment, textiles, construction materials and pharmaceuticals. In neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, China is already involved in the construction of industrial projects.
However, these developments do not mean that China will push Russia out of the region any time soon, if ever. Despite their growing economic ties with Beijing, Central Asian countries are almost certainly interested in keeping Russia close to balance out the influence of China.
Central Asian countries will use the EU as a counterbalance too, to help minimise a heavy dependency on either of their giant neighbours. If China wants to position itself as the dominant power in Central Asia, it will not be easy.


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Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Heads of State Council summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on September16, 2022. Photo: EPA-EFE

A goods train headed for Central Asia leaves from Rizhao in China’s Shandong province on September 12, 2017. Photo: Xinhua

Vehicles on a bridge in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region carry wind power components from a Chinese energy company headed for Kostanay, Kazakhstan, on April 24, 2020. Photo: Xinhua

An Uzbek cotton grower works on a plantation outside Tashkent, Uzbekistan on October 24, 2019. Photo: AFP

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A view of Almaty in Kazakhstan in 2023. The Middle Corridor, a trade route connecting China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, has become more important as China seeks to minimise risks from instability in the Middle East and Russia. Photo: Xinhua

A China-Europe goods train pulls out of Tongjiang North Railway Port in Heilongjiang province on August 8. Photo: Xinhua 

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The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Photo: https://middlecorridor.com/en

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Alibek Kuantyrov, deputy foreign minister of Kazakhstan, says the relationship with China is “stronger than ever”. Photo: Handout

Astana hosted the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in July. Photo: EPA-EFE

What Brics lacks in structural power, it makes up for in connections

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas (centre left) speaks with United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres (centre) and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (centre right) as participants in the Brics Plus meeting pose for a family photo during the Brics summit in Kazan on October 24. Photo: AFP 

Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Kazan on October 23. Photo: Turkish Presidency Press Office/AFP

Chinese President Xi Jinping holds a welcome ceremony for UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 30. Photo: Xinhua

Opinion

China Opinion

Asia Opinion

As Central Asian nations diversify away from Russia, it’s not a given that China or the EU will become dominant powers in the region


As Central Asian nations diversify away from Russia, it’s not a given that China or the EU will become dominant powers in the region.


Central Asia

Diplomacy

Climate change diplomacy

China

Russia

European Union

Ukraine war

Energy

Trade

China trade

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


How do Central Asian countries see China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As Central Asian nations diversify away from Russia, it’s not a given that China or the EU will become dominant powers in the region

As Central Asian nations diversify away from Russia, it’s not a given that China or the EU will become dominant powers in the region