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Genevieve Donnellon-May

Super Typhoon Yagi’s significant impact on southern China and Typhoon Bebinca’s lashing of Shanghai are more reminders of the country’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change, particularly extreme weather events.
According to the 2023 China Climate Bulletin, extreme weather set temperature records last year. Notably, temperatures in a township in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region reached a record high of 52.2 degrees Celsius in July 2023.
The consequences are costly. In July this year, extreme weather events caused China around 76.85 billion yuan (US$9.9 billion) in economic losses, with 88 per cent of the losses due to heavy rains and floods, according to the country’s Ministry of Emergency Management. Nearly 26.4 million people were affected.
Managing extreme weather events has long been critical to maintaining political legitimacy and stability in China. Tied to the “mandate of heaven”, failures in this area, particularly flooding, have historically signalled a dynasty’s loss of authority. This practice dates back over 4,000 years to Yu the Great of the Xia dynasty, who is said to have tamed the Yellow River.
Chinese central authorities have emphasised the need for effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. They have released documents, such as the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035, to help guide national efforts. But there’s more that can be done.
As climate-related disasters increase, integrating climate change into water management is key for effective response planning. Flood forecasting, climate change modelling, hazard mapping and climate risk assessments must be strengthened across China to refine hydrological projections and identify vulnerable areas. Enhanced data collection and forecasting allow authorities and communities to take preventive measures earlier.

There are clear benefits. The United Nations highlights that an US$800 million investment in early warning systems could prevent annual economic losses between US$3-16 billion a year in developing countries. Meanwhile, giving just 24 hours’ notice of impending hazardous events could reduce economic damage by 30 per cent.
The success of this approach was seen in 2023 when Myanmar’s improved disaster management for Cyclone Mocha, including domestic early warnings, resulted in significantly fewer casualties compared to Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which caused up to 140,000 deaths.
The lack of a weather radar network that could predict cyclones and the lack of an early warning system were major factors in the high death toll from Cyclone Nargis. Analysts at the time speculated that it could precipitate significant political change in Myanmar, including the destabilisation of the country’s military regime.
Investing in artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced satellites could also significantly enhance climate monitoring and data collection. China could look to Australia, which has made major developments in this area, and which has recently signed a climate change cooperation memorandum of understanding with Beijing.
For example, the Flood and Storm Intelligence Sensing project in the Australian state of New South Wales is trying out the use of AI and mobile networks to predict flooding impacts by integrating localised real-time weather data and historical Bureau of Meteorology data to predict the expected impact of flooding on communities. These advancements could greatly support China’s climate resilience efforts.

Challenges lie ahead. Beyond the costs of upgrading infrastructure and managing land use, other key issues like fragmented policies and poor coordination between municipalities and regional governments must be addressed. In the case of the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas, according to a recent study in the journal Nature, a lack of delta-wide plans that “systematically zone land and prioritise investments within one unified hydrological system” has resulted in a fragmented approach to disaster management.
In the aftermath of the severe summer flooding in Beijing in 2023, for instance, experts pointed out that government bodies often look after their own jurisdiction. By aiming to move the problem and divert the floods quickly, even more pressure was placed on the downstream areas, worsening the situation.
To avoid similar incidents, cooperation across jurisdictions between central and local governments and across different departments is necessary. Doing so can enhance the effectiveness of climate adaptation measures while also acknowledging that climate impacts and infrastructure needs may vary across different areas.


Funding initiatives to address extreme weather events in China is another challenge due to potentially high costs. The sponge city concept, rolled out in 2015 to manage stormwater, exemplifies these challenges. Although the central government allocated 400-600 million yuan (US$56.4-86.6 million) per city for initial sponge city projects, total spending has reportedly exceeded US$12 billion. Beijing covers only 15-20 per cent of these costs. Local governments and the private sector are responsible for the rest.
However, local governments burdened by substantial debt may struggle to prioritise such expensive projects. Concerns are compounded by the ongoing efforts of local governments to address revenue shortfalls by liquidating state-owned assets in a process described as “smashing iron pots and selling the steel”.
Amid a national economic slowdown, local governments facing soaring debt may understandably prioritise immediate needs over long-term climate resilience programmes. To this end, local governments may seek loans from the central government, private sector investment or even enter public-private partnerships.
The rising frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events in China has already led to substantial economic losses and widespread impact. While some significant steps have been made to address these concerns, major hurdles lie ahead. To better support the country’s resilience to future extreme weather events, China must strengthen both cooperation across jurisdictions and invest more in advanced technologies.


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While China has prioritised climate adaptation, inadequate investment, fragmented policies and poor coordination between municipalities risk holding back progress


While China has prioritised climate adaptation, inadequate investment, fragmented policies and poor coordination between municipalities risk holding back progress.


Climate change science and technology

Climate change diplomacy

Business of climate change

Environment

Extreme weather

Accidents, extreme weather and disasters in China

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Can China strengthen climate defences before it’s too late?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While China has prioritised climate adaptation, inadequate investment, fragmented policies and poor coordination between municipalities risk holding back progress

While China has prioritised climate adaptation, inadequate investment, fragmented policies and poor coordination between municipalities risk holding back progress