Shi Quan

Opinion | Like the US before World War I, China is staying above the fray

China is geared towards creating more opportunities for its own peaceful development, rather than obsessing over global hegemony

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China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi looks on at the signing of the Beijing Declaration of unity by rival Palestinian factions including Fatah and Hamas, in Beijing on July 23. Unlike the US and the Camp David Accords, China does not see the Beijing Declaration as a defence of its regional influence. Photo: AP

Shi Quan

Published: 9:30am, 6 Aug 2024

A rising power attempts to uphold the international order of free trade amid resistance from various forces. It insists on resolving major conflict through negotiation and does not choose to directly intervene. At the same time, this rising power focuses on advancing domestic reforms, leveraging its comparative advantages and exporting its industrial goods to different camps.

This rising power was the United States in 1914-1917, before it abandoned its neutrality and entered the first world war on the side of the Allied powers – but the description also applies to China in 2022-2024. The US at the time pursued isolationism under immense pressure and ultimately reaped substantial benefits.

Since 2022, with the intensification of the US-China strategic competition, alongside the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Palestine conflict, offensive realism has once again dominated public discourse. With America’s deep engagement in the Middle East situation looking like a continuation of its Cold War posture, there are those who argue that China should start acting as the other pole.

Given China’s role in the historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and in promoting negotiations among rival Palestinian factions, Western scholars are convinced that China is projecting more power into the Middle East in a fierce competition with the US for global dominance.

On July 31, barely a week after 14 Palestinian factions signed the Beijing Declaration calling for unity, a Hamas leader was assassinated in Iran. Some saw this as a significant provocation of China and suggested Beijing go beyond condemning the killing with words, to respond with action.

But will these events really prompt China to play a bigger role in the Middle East, even directly intervene in the region’s affairs? The answer should be no.