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David Dodwell

In their 2022 book Sinostan, Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Petersen saw Central Asia as China’s “inadvertent empire”. If that is true – and the five-country region embracing Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan (informally called the C5) certainly sits at the heart of China’s Belt and Road Initiative – then Beijing could not have chosen a less noticed corner of the world atlas.
Unnoticed, perhaps, by almost everyone except Halford Mackinder, who in 1904 described the area as the “heartland” of the “world island”. Mackinder argued that the nation which controlled this heartland could control the world. For over 120 years, Mackinder has been proven profoundly wrong. But perhaps that is about to change.
If so, that would make Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s recent mission to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – Central Asia’s two largest economies – well timed.
I would guess that a year ago, Lee and most members of his mission knew little about the C5. And that can be forgiven. For most of my lifetime, they have been wretchedly poor desert countries sitting in the neglected underbelly of what used to be the Soviet empire. They were tiny, thinly populated Muslim economies whose plentiful natural resources were mostly sold to Russia. Even Kazakhstan, which is almost the size of India, has a population of just 21 million and a gross domestic product just four-fifths of Hong Kong’s.
Only in 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet empire, did things begin to change, initially not for the better. Corruption surged, as did border and resource disputes between the region’s fragmented ethnic groupings. Radical Islam – and the quest for terrorist caliphates – thrived. Large regional wars in Iraq and Afghanistan discouraged investment.

But more recently, change has been for the better, starting with China and heavy Belt and Road Initiative investment. Beijing’s logic was simple: turmoil in Xinjiang, which came to a climax in 2013 with a Uygur car bomb attack in Tiananmen Square, could only in the long term be quelled by economic development and rising living conditions; and prosperity for Xinjiang, on the distant western periphery of the Chinese economy, could only happen if its neighbours also became more prosperous.
So the five economies of Central Asia became the inadvertent beneficiaries of China’s need to quell the turmoil in Xinjiang.
This coincided with Chinese thinkers like Peking University’s Wang Jisi saying China should develop its economic linkages westwards across the Eurasian land mass towards Europe – helping to circumvent maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Central Asia’s long-ignored economies needed to be developed – and most importantly, the infrastructure had to be improved – because it was essential to travel across them to reach the lucrative markets of the European Union.
Since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013, the five Central Asian economies have become inadvertent beneficiaries of hundreds of billions of Chinese investment. Not only have oil and gas pipelines been built to deliver fuel to China, but the “Middle Corridor” – the 4,250km Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – now delivers 77,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) a year by rail, mostly from China to cities across Europe. The target is to be delivering 300,000 TEUs by 2029, with extra impetus coming from the need to avoid sanctions on Russia arising from its invasion of Ukraine.

Ironically, Central Asian states have also been inadvertent beneficiaries of many of the ill winds that have tormented the global economy in recent years. Russia’s military distraction in Ukraine has enabled the C5 to capture new-found agency over their fates. They have settled boundary and water supply disputes, and are learning to act as a bloc. They are pursuing a multi-vector strategy aimed at diluting reliance on any single power – including China.
As the region does very little trade with the United States, President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff wars have had little impact. As a big exporter of fossil fuels, copper and gold, it has benefited from high prices resulting from Trump’s Iran war. As the source of around half of the world’s uranium, and plentiful supplies of rare earths, it has been a big beneficiary of the green revolution.
With greater economic leverage acting as a bloc, the C5 have sought to enhance the added value in their natural-resource-dependent economies – from raw cotton exports to manufactured garments, from wheat to flour and other food products, from oil to refined petrochemicals, and from metals to finished manufactured goods.
Just as the region has been a massive beneficiary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and in many ways has provided the launch pad for the infrastructure-focused priorities that Beijing has over the past decade rolled out across much of the Global South, so it has become emblematic of China’s efforts to rewire the global economy, diversify trade and investment dependencies away from the US, and project its mantra of non-interference.
It would be rash to think Hong Kong will leave more than a modest mark. But the timing is good. While the C5 have made progress in upgrading their resource-reliant economies and developing strong transport infrastructure, their financial systems remain overreliant on Russia, and Hong Kong has the potential to rebalance that. Our gains, and those of the C5, might be inadvertent but, in my view, inadvertent gains are as good as any.


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Diplomacy

With Central Asia rising, John Lee’s visit was well timed

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee (second left) visits the Centre for Islamic Civilisation in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on June 5. Photo: Handout

The Trans-Caspian international transport route, or the East-West Middle Corridor. Photo: https://middlecorridor.com/en

Why Hong Kong matters to Kazakhstan’s financial ambitions

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu visits the Astana Hub to learn about the latest Kazakh developments in artificial intelligence on June 1, in Kazakhstan. Photo: ISD

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu and his delegation at Nazarbayev University in Astana on June 3. Photo: Jeffie Lam

The first phase of the Astana light rail project, constructed by a Chinese company, was opened on May 16. Photo: Presidential Palace of Kazakhstan/Xinhua  

Direct flights between Hong Kong and Uzbekistan to launch this year, sources say

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee alongside Uzbekistan’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Bakhtiyor Saidov. Photo: Handout

The visa-free travel agreement aims to promote economic, trade and tourism development, the Hong Kong government says. Photo: Getty Images

How Hong Kong’s strengths can help unlock Central Asia’s potential

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu on a tour of the Nazarbayev University campus in Astana, Kazakhstan, on June 3. Photo: ISD

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu (left) meets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan, on June 1. Photo: Handout

Tourists visiting the Registan at night in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Photo: Getty Images

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu (left) meets Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on June 4. Photo: Handout

Kazakhstan bank turns to Hong Kong as gateway to offshore renminbi finance

Hong Kong is the world’s largest offshore renminbi liquidity hub. Photo: Photo: AFP

Murat Baisynov, chairman of Altyn Bank. Photo: Jeffie Lam

Opinion

Asia Opinion

China Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

Russia & Central Asia

China

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Economy

The region’s five countries, inadvertent beneficiaries of Chinese infrastructure investment, then wars and tariffs elsewhere, are finding their feet


The region’s five countries, inadvertent beneficiaries of Chinese infrastructure investment, then wars and tariffs elsewhere, are finding their feet.


Central Asia

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Xinjiang

Hong Kong economy

John Lee

Belt and Road Initiative

Rare earths

Commodities

Inside Out & Outside In

Russia

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Outside In

With Central Asia rising, John Lee’s visit was well timed

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The region’s five countries, inadvertent beneficiaries of Chinese infrastructure investment, then wars and tariffs elsewhere, are finding their feet

The region’s five countries, inadvertent beneficiaries of Chinese infrastructure investment, then wars and tariffs elsewhere, are finding their feet