East Asia’s population challenge isn’t just about raising birth rates

Across East Asia, societies are becoming richer, healthier and more educated, yet fewer people feel able or willing to have families and raise children. Low fertility plagues high-income societies, particularly in East Asia, where the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below one birth per woman, well under the replacement level of 2.1 births. While many countries have dedicated considerable resources and effort to reversing this trend, the results have been somewhat disappointing.

The pairing of “low fertility” and “human development” is central to the discussion. Fertility trends are not merely demographic outcomes; they reflect how people experience work, relationships, caregiving, inequality, security and hope for the future. Child-rearing has slipped down the priority list for young couples, with the heavy burden of responsibility cited alongside financial strain as a major barrier.

Few current demographic trends are as consequential as persistently low fertility. In East Asia, including Singapore, fertility rates in some countries hover near or below one child per woman, raising grave concerns about future population and socioeconomic sustainability. Hong Kong witnessed a historic low of 31,100 births in 2025, with a TFR of 0.73, one of the lowest among all economies in the region.