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Nikola Mikovic

Since America launched its “major combat operation” against Iran, several Nato allies have distanced themselves from Washington. Now America also risks losing ground in strategically important Southeast Asia to China. Could it face an erosion of influence similar to that suffered by Russia in Central Asia as a result of its “special military operation” in Ukraine?
Soon after US President Donald Trump launched massive air and missile strikes on Iran on February 28, it became clear Washington could not count on the support of its Western partners. One by one, European countries refused to participate in his Iran adventure, including military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. US allies in the Middle East have also learned that Henry Kissinger’s observation that “it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal” still carries significant weight.
But Asean seems to have been aware of this from the start.
On March 4, while the US and Israel carried out missile and air strikes against Iran, the foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations issued a statement. It expressed “serious concern over the escalation of conflict in the Middle East following the attacks initiated by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on 28 February 2026 and the subsequent retaliatory attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran against several countries in the region”.
This balanced, factually accurate approach shows Asean did not intend to side with Washington despite some members being US treaty allies.
Asean has repeatedly called for an immediate cessation of hostilities while continuing to strengthen regional integration, particularly in energy – no surprise given some member nations have been hit hard by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Politically, however, while Asean as a whole remains neutral, some individual members seem to be seeking to distance themselves from the US and aligning more closely with China.


According to a recent ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey, opinion in the region is narrowly tilted towards Beijing over Washington when forced to choose between the two powers. Nowhere is that more visible than in Indonesia, where support for China is particularly strong (80.1 per cent).
Asean’s largest member is also seeking stronger economic ties with Russia. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has visited Russia three times since taking office on October 20, 2024. Most recently, he met Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 13 in Moscow, where both leaders discussed a wide range of issues, including energy cooperation. Several points were reportedly agreed upon, including long-term cooperation in the energy and mineral resources sector, such as oil and gas, energy security and downstreaming.
According to Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, Indonesia, which traditionally imports its petroleum products from suppliers in the US, Middle East and Australia, now sought to diversify its sources by negotiating long-term contracts with Russia. Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has also offered to help Indonesia set up nuclear power plants.
This is despite US sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine. US ally the Philippines is importing Russian oil for the first time in five years. Fear of American secondary sanctions is no longer an effective deterrent. Does this mean that Washington, as a result of Trump’s “major combat operation” in Iran, is losing its influence in Southeast Asia?
In the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey, which was conducted before the Iran war, respondents identified US leadership under Trump as the region’s top geopolitical worry (51.9 per cent), with especially high levels recorded in Singapore (76.8 per cent), Indonesia (67.8 per cent) and Laos (52.9 per cent). Importantly, concerns that Asean risks becoming an arena of major power competition, and its members major power proxies, are becoming more apparent.


China, on the other hand, is perceived by many as a major power in Southeast Asia, with over 40 per cent of Asean respondents identifying it as the most influential actor, followed by the US (29.9 per cent). However, a substantial 66.1 per cent express concern over Beijing’s growing political and strategic influence, compared with 33.9 per cent who welcome it. Thus, if it aims to improve its standing among Asean members, China cannot rely solely on the US fiasco in Iran, but will also need to work on its soft power.
Besides Indonesia, support for China is particularly strong in Malaysia (68 per cent) and Singapore (66.3 per cent), while the US retains clear preference in the Philippines (76.8 per cent), Myanmar (61.4 per cent) and Cambodia (61 per cent).
Beijing’s influence in the region is undoubtedly growing but that does not mean it will be in a position to crowd the US out of Southeast Asia soon – as China and Washington are effectively doing to Russia in Central Asia. Any such shift in Southeast Asia would take time.
Geography, however, plays an important role in Beijing’s Southeast Asia strategy. Due to its proximity, China has been Asean’s largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Although Beijing has traditionally expanded its influence across the world through economic cooperation, in Southeast Asia it may also have the opportunity to do so politically, especially as US actions in Iran have undermined Washington’s reputation as a reliable partner.
But such a development will depend not only on the outcome of the Iran war, but also on Beijing’s ability to avoid confrontation with neighbouring states in the South China Sea.


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Asean survey reflects China’s growing strategic influence but also concerns. The question is: will China crowd the US out of the region?


China-Asean relations

US-Asean relations

US-Israel war on Iran

United States

Malaysia

Energy

Indonesia

South China Sea

Donald Trump

Singapore

Russia

The Philippines

Iran

Myanmar

Cambodia

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Can Iran fiasco help China edge out US in key arena of Southeast Asia?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Asean survey reflects China’s growing strategic influence but also concerns. The question is: will China crowd the US out of the region?

Asean survey reflects China’s growing strategic influence but also concerns. The question is: will China crowd the US out of the region?