Opinion | A US-China thaw could boost Eurasian trade

The easing of tariffs and commitments to resume trade mark a pragmatic shift after a period of intensifying tariffs and export restrictions. If trade tensions continue to cool, the ripple effects could extend beyond Washington and Beijing. Supply chains, logistics corridors and transit strategies across Eurasia may all be reshaped.

In this context, Central Asia is likely to emerge as a key geographic hinge between the two powers. Long a conduit of trade along the ancient Silk Road, the region is again assuming strategic importance as both the United States and China seek to secure new overland connections and reduce vulnerabilities in global logistics. Kazakhstan, which links the large markets of Europe and Asia, has become critical in international transport. Beyond this role, the country aims to leverage its 220 million hectares of farmland to bolster agricultural exports and global food security.

While China’s interest in Central Asian infrastructure is well established through its Belt and Road Initiative, the US is quietly becoming more active too. There are several reasons for this.

Kazakhstan supports this diversification strategy by providing a neutral node in Eurasia. Over the past five years, cargo traffic along the Middle Corridor has reportedly increased sixfold. In 2024, around 4.5 million tonnes of cargo moved along the route, up 62 per cent from the previous year. Kazakhstan aims to double this to 10 million tonnes by 2027, turning the corridor into one of the fastest-growing routes for Eurasian trade.