Opinion | Are China, Pakistan, Bangladesh quietly planting region’s new framework?

In a quiet but potentially defining moment for South Asia, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, China and Bangladesh convened in the Chinese city of Kunming last month. It may have looked like just another diplomatic gathering, but it signalled a strategic shift – one that could recalibrate the balance of regional cooperation and breathe life into the idea of a regional framework post-SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

Yet, SAARC today feels like a relic of a bygone era. India’s repeated refusal to participate in SAARC summits, citing tensions with Pakistan, has stalled the organisation. Even Bangladesh’s recent call to revive SAARC in the post-Hasina political climate seemed more nostalgic than practical. Truth is, SAARC has always been hostage to bilateral disputes, particularly between India and Pakistan, and that structural weakness may now prove fatal.

India, unwilling to engage with Pakistan in a multilateral setting, has shifted its attention to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), a seven-nation initiative – including Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka – that notably excludes Pakistan.

Meanwhile, India’s growing partnership with the United States under its Indo-Pacific strategy has cast it as Washington’s preferred regional partner in its bid to counter China’s influence. This has not gone unnoticed in China, which finds itself recalibrating its South Asia engagement strategy.

For China, Pakistan is a partner in the important China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and a strategic gateway to South Asia. The relationship, based on trust and deepened over the test of time, is not just convenient – it is essential. For Pakistan, which faces a gradual isolation from regional forums and remains at odds with India, an alternative multilateral framework that includes China and like-minded South Asian states could offer both strategic relevance and economic opportunity.