Opinion | Is the Aukus submarine deal dead in the water under Trump?
The US’ review of the agreement under which Australia was to receive nuclear-powered submarines is unlikely to have a good outcome for Canberra
In Canberra, the government has maintained an anxious silence, most likely in an attempt to limit any noise that may land unfavourably on US President Donald Trump’s desk. Now it is clear that a review by the Australian government of Aukus Pillar I must be forthcoming.
A starting point will be a potential conditional rise in Australia’s defence spending on further cooperation with the Pentagon. Elbridge Colby, US undersecretary of defence for policy, is advocating a 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) minimum defence spending threshold among allies, “not only in Europe but in Asia as well”.
This spending hike is certain to rub up against existing agreements under the Aukus “Optimal Pathway”, which will see the United States sell three used Virginia-class SSNs to Australia in 2032, 2035 and 2038.
The feasibility of the Optimal Pathway is quickly diminishing amid the hype around escalating costs and the limited capacity of the US defence industrial base to meet ambitious delivery timelines.