Opinion | Why South Korea’s next leader should revive 6-party nuclear talks

South Korea is heading to a presidential election on June 3, triggered by the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol after his bungled attempt at martial law. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition Democratic Party, is a clear front-runner. With the formation of a Lee administration in South Korea looking likely, the United States would have a rare opportunity to explore North Korea’s denuclearisation.

US President Donald Trump has boasted of his close connection to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, with whom he had summit meetings during his first term. Trump might want to prove himself as a peacemaker and great statesman by resolving the denuclearisation issue. Indeed, Trump has indicated his willingness to meet Kim again: in January, days into his second administration, and again in February and March.

At the same time, South Korea’s Lee is widely expected to pursue a friendlier policy towards North Korea – and China – than former president Yoon. This would create a favourable environment for denuclearisation.

Given Lee’s attitude towards China, his government could be positive for the international landscape. China wants to see peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and to foster economic prosperity across Northeast Asia. More specifically, it needs North Korea as a buffer zone against the US and its allies. That is why North Korea’s survival and peace on the Korean Peninsula are important to it.

But make no mistake, North Korea as a nuclear state constitutes a cost to China. The US could use a nuclear North Korea as an excuse to expand its influence in Northeast Asia. It can deploy more military assets to South Korea and strengthen the trilateral alliance – with Japan – to counter a nuclear-armed North Korea, which would clearly work against China’s strategic interests.