Asia is ground zero for the impact of global glacier loss

In the 30 years since leaders first gathered to discuss how to limit climate change under the UN framework convention, the Earth has lost over 14 trillion tonnes of ice from mountain glaciers and ice sheets. We stand on the cusp of major losses to polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica – changes happening much sooner than scientists’ previous worst-case scenarios. They spell the end for low-lying nations, and the polar indigenous peoples and many lifeforms evolved to thrive in these remote, frozen zones. But they are also set to strike all of us. And it’s hard to imagine anywhere that will feel the force as acutely or on as vast a scale as Asia. While the impact of rising sea levels on major economic centres, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Bangkok and Mumbai, has been the subject of study and adaptation action, Asia faces a double threat. It is also at the front line of the rapid deglaciation and loss of snowpacks across mountains. While significant sea-level rises are likely to be a reality towards the second half of the 21st century, mountain deglaciation is a disaster well under way. Global snow and ice provide fresh water for about 2 billion people. In connection with the first UN World Glacier Day on March 21, the World Glacier Monitoring Services estimates that we have lost 9 trillion tonnes of ice from mountains since records began in 1975. That’s the equivalent of a 25m-thick ice block the size of Germany. Further loss of this “ecosystem service” will make some of our agriculture, energy supplies and communities unviable. Asia, home to the Hindu Kush Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, needs to start thinking of itself as a glacier continent. Other mountains are losing their frozen water stores more quickly. Just this century, the Alps have lost 39 per cent of the glacier mass, Canada’s Rockies a quarter and the Caucasus over a third. At this rate, many glaciers will not survive the 21st century. Rising global temperatures are hitting snow cover: in recent decades, we’ve lost 15 days of cover per year in many mountains – in high mountains, seasonal snowpack melt is the greatest contributor of freshwater supplies. These losses will hit downstream irrigation, hydroelectricity and water supplies in the short term, with more floods, and in the medium term as water supplies start to wane from the middle of the century. US President Donald Trump has called Canada “a very large faucet” – but if you look at the Columbia River system and a reservoir called Kinbasket Lake, you will see its lake bed can be a dust bowl because of spring snow drought. Glaciers alone cannot fill these reservoirs, snowmelt is needed – Canada’s hydroelectricity and water exports dropped dramatically in 2023 due to diminished snowmelt. The “faucet” may no longer be available. We can expect similar patterns in Asia, with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development projecting most rivers will see peak melt by 2050. Snow and ice in the Himalayas are among those thought able to withstand the temperature rise for the longest. But even here, one-fifth of glacier mass has been lost this century. With the Hindu Kush Himalaya feeding 10 vast transboundary rivers, the impact of Asia’s mountain glacier losses is likely to quickly dwarf those unleashed elsewhere, given the huge populations, economic activity and 280 large cities along these river basins. Rivers are key drivers of Asia’s economic growth, with 865GW of power assets. The Yangtze River Basin alone is reckoned to generate 38 per cent of China’s gross domestic product. According to a China Water Risk report released this week, 49 per cent of India’s and 55 per cent of Pakistan’s economic value is derived from the Indus and the Ganges basins, while the Mekong supports between 94 and 97 per cent of Laos and Cambodia’s GDP respectively. Half of Asia’s population live in one of these 10 river basins. The factsheets warn that given this exposure, intensifying and compounding changes in snow and ice melt could trigger breakdowns in socioeconomic systems and “sink economies”. We have started to rely on the additional water that shrinking glaciers contribute to river flow for our hydropower, fresh water, agriculture and drought resiliency. But this will quickly run out as our glaciers retreat more rapidly. Withdrawal, especially as droughts become more extreme, will come at a terrible cost. So, while it’s tempting to think we control the world, it’s the glaciers, snow and ice that are in charge of our affairs. Humans have long managed water supplies, extracting water from the ground, diverting rivers and irrigating soils. We are very effective water managers. But we need world leaders to understand the global implications of the loss of mountain snow and ice. The climate conditions responsible for glacier loss also result in heatwaves we cannot live through, fatal water shortages, floods that destroy our homes and sea level rises that inundate coastal settlements. Where will the billions of displaced people find homes and livelihoods? I am optimistic, but we have been too slow to reach agreements to lower greenhouse gas concentrations. As countries draft new nationally determined contributions for the COP30 UN climate change conference in Belem, Brazil, in November, we have to turn this around. I hope we will be able to look back and say some fundamental decisions were made this year to create a future where some of our ice and snow can survive, along with humanity. Perhaps this will be our species’ grandest adventure yet. By preserving the world’s glaciers, we can preserve ourselves and our civilisation.

Asia is ground zero for the impact of global glacier loss

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Other mountain ranges are losing their glaciers faster but Asia’s critically dependent economy and people put it on the front line

Other mountain ranges are losing their glaciers faster but Asia’s critically dependent economy and people put it on the front line