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Abdul Moiz Khan

Syeda Saba Batool

On December 18, the United States imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme under executive order 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. Sanctions were imposed on four Pakistani entities, including the state-owned National Development Complex. This round of sanctions is the fourth of its kind in 14 months.
In October 2023, the US sanctioned three Chinese entities for allegedly supplying Pakistan with materials that could be used in its missile programme. Similarly, in April last year, the US sanctioned three Chinese companies and a Belarusian firm, and in September, it sanctioned four Chinese firms and a Chinese individual for working with Pakistan on its missile programme.
The latest round of sanctions, however, stands out as it is the first time in recent history that the US has openly sanctioned a state-owned company.
US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, speaking at an event organised by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spelled out the rationale for the sanctions, alleging that Pakistan is developing large rocket motors that could eventually provide it with the ability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.
Pakistan’s foreign office, in response, termed the sanctions unfortunate and biased. In a statement, it said: “Pakistan has also made it abundantly clear that our strategic programme and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country. Hence, any irrational assumption of a hostile intent from Pakistan by any other country including the US is perplexing as well as illogical.”
Currently, Pakistan’s medium-range ballistic missile, the Shaheen-III, is the longest-range missile in its arsenal. It can travel 2,750km and has a motor with a diameter of 1.4m. For Pakistan to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the US, the range would need to be about 12,000km.
The United States sanctioning Pakistani companies on the basis of unproven assumptions will strain relations between the two countries. Pakistan has, on multiple occasions, reiterated its stance that its nuclear capabilities are only to deter India.

The US does not seem to understand the strategic realities of South Asia, where the Indo-US partnership is already aggravating Pakistan’s anxieties. India’s recent missile developments – including its Agni-5 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, hypersonic glide vehicle and K4 submarine-launch ballistic missile – have ramifications for regional stability which the US has ignored.
Instead, Washington is further strengthening its defence and security partnership with New Delhi through agreements like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, which covers collaboration on cybersecurity, chip manufacturing, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, space and other sectors.
Moreover, India recently signed a deal to procure 31 MQ-9B unmanned aerial vehicles from the US and both states also entered into a security of supply arrangement, committing to “to provide reciprocal priority support for goods and services that promote national defence”.
India’s improvements in its missile capabilities and other military equipment is already destabilising the South Asian region.
Pakistan has a history of good relations with the US, although there have been ups and downs. Islamabad has played a major role in the US’ “war on terror” and has enjoyed the status of a major non-Nato ally. However, the recent US sanctions will only push Pakistan closer to China, with which it has a strong strategic partnership.

On the global geopolitical chessboard, US-China great power rivalry is growing. To counter China’s peaceful rise, the US has been strengthening its partnership with India at the expense of its relationship with Pakistan.
Islamabad has always maintained strong relations with both Beijing and Washington and even played an important role in the rapprochement between the two countries in 1972. However, after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, relations between Islamabad and Washington have been on a downward spiral.
The latest US sanctions do not bode well for India-Pakistan risk-reduction measures. The ongoing modernisation of the Indian military threatens to reignite an arms race between the neighbours. Washington’s favouring of New Delhi would further increase the gap between the capabilities of India and Pakistan.
In the past, the US has played an important third-party role in reducing tensions between the two countries. Increasing mistrust between Pakistan and the US on strategic issues will reduce Washington’s ability to play the role of neutral party in any future crisis. This development does not augur well for overall regional stability.


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US sanctions on Pakistan will only push it closer to China

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Opinion

Asia Opinion

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Asia

South Asia

China

The latest round of sanctions will strain ties between Washington and Islamabad and increase instability in South Asia


The latest round of sanctions will strain ties between Washington and Islamabad and increase instability in South Asia.


Pakistan

United States

Nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)

US sanctions on China

Diplomacy

India

Defence

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


US sanctions on Pakistan will only push it closer to China

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The latest round of sanctions will strain ties between Washington and Islamabad and increase instability in South Asia

The latest round of sanctions will strain ties between Washington and Islamabad and increase instability in South Asia