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Richard Heydarian

“I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars,” declared US president-elect Donald Trump in his victory speech after a stunning comeback in the presidential election. “We had no wars [under my administration]. Except we defeated Isis, we defeated Isis in record time,” he claimed, despite evidence to the contrary.
Nonetheless, two major conflicts in recent times, namely in Ukraine and Gaza, emerged on outgoing US President Joseph Biden’s watch.
Trump has criticised past Republican officials who oversaw the United States’ disastrous military interventions, most notably in Iraq and Afghanistan. Despite his tough talk and strongman persona, he has consciously positioned himself as a peacemaker, who is intent on ending wars overseas in favour of investing in America’s own economy and infrastructure.
Trump’s victory, no wonder then, was cautiously welcomed even by the US’ rivals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the president-elect as a “brave man” and welcomed the opportunity to reset bilateral relations. Iran’s vice-president and veteran diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif expressed the hope that a second Trump administration “will stand against war as pledged, and will heed the clear lesson given by the American electorate to end wars and prevent new ones”.
Perhaps the most crucial response came from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who told Trump that the two countries would “benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation”.


While hoping for the best, however, nations across Southeast Asia are preparing for a rough ride under a Trump 2.0 administration. The US is widely expected to embrace protectionist, unilateral and confrontational policies on issues ranging from immigration to trade in the coming years.
Unlike in 2016, the results of this year’s presidential election were less shocking to many around the world. After all, this was not the first time that Trump defied the polls. If anything, both allies and rivals have been busy Trump-proofing their foreign policy in anticipation of his likely return.
In Asia, the attitude has largely been one of nonchalance. Throughout my visits across the region and beyond this year, I have repeatedly heard officials and pundits underscoring how Trump’s first term turned out to be largely manageable. In theory, Trump could turn out to be a more palatable counterpart for Southeast Asian leaders.
Unlike the outgoing Biden administration, he is likely to cease a “values-based” foreign policy in favour of a more straightforward and transactional one. From Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen, Southeast Asian strongmen could have a far easier time dealing with Trump – for example, no more “Summit for Democracy” events, which have excluded key US partners such as Singapore.
Moreover, the Biden administration has overseen a dramatic decline in America’s trust ratings among Southeast Asian thought leaders. According to a 2024 ISEAS survey, a solid majority of respondents in Malaysia (75 per cent), Indonesia (73) per cent and Brunei (70 per cent) preferred China over the US – marking a double-digit increase from the Asian power’s approval ratings in the preceding year.
With respondents in these nations identifying the Gaza conflict as a top geopolitical concern, it’s clear that the Biden administration’s ironclad support for Israel’s military operations has heavily alienated Muslim-majority nations in Southeast Asia.

It remains to be seen who will end up in key cabinet positions in the incoming administration. But the overall contours of Trump’s foreign policy suggest more troubled waters ahead.
The US election results are set to place the Republican Party in unprecedented position of power. A heavily conservative US Supreme Court and, at the time of writing, a likely trifecta mean that Trump’s “Make America great again” (MAGA) coalition will feel sufficiently unshackled to implement radical policies, including a new draconian immigration regime.
This could unleash civil strife and heavy resistance domestically, especially in Democratic strongholds, but also strain people-to-people relations with key allies and partners. The Philippine ambassador to the US has advised the large numbers of Filipino undocumented migrants in the US to voluntarily return home lest they face a stiff crackdown under the Trump administration.
Moreover, a second Trump presidency is bad news on the trade front. A self-described “Tariff Man”, Trump is expected to levy heavy tariffs not only on China but also on other major exporting nations.
Trade wars will hit Southeast Asian countries especially hard. By some estimates, should Trump press ahead with his new rounds of tariffs, “non-China Asia” could suffer up to an 8 per cent decline in their exports to the US.
As if that weren’t enough, Trump is likely to nix Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework just as he scuttled the Obama administration’s Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. And there are no indications that he will offer any new multilateral economic initiative even as he is likely to squeeze imports from Asian partners.

Ultimately, the US might implement an even more aggressively unilateralist foreign policy. Trump could purge the national security establishment and pack the US government with MAGA loyalists and ideologues, who prefer a more pugnacious foreign policy.
There may be no more veteran defence experts and military officials who could act as “adults in the room”, which will only increase the chances of military misadventures. By all indications, the US is set to adopt a more confrontational policy towards rivals like Iran and is more likely to double down on its military support to Israel.
Thus, the second Trump administration may sleepwalk into a major conflict in the Middle East, which would further inflame anti-Western sentiments in Southeast Asia and undermine the US’ ability to effectively compete with China. Paradoxically, Trump may further weaken his country’s leadership in one of the world’s most dynamic and geopolitically vital regions.


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Despite Trump positioning himself as a peacemaker, his foreign policy agenda is likely to push allies in Asia further away


Despite Trump positioning himself as a peacemaker, his foreign policy agenda is likely to push allies in Asia further away.


Why US influence in Southeast Asia could decline under Trump 2.0

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite Trump positioning himself as a peacemaker, his foreign policy agenda is likely to push allies in Asia further away

Despite Trump positioning himself as a peacemaker, his foreign policy agenda is likely to push allies in Asia further away