North Korean intervention in Ukraine is the last thing the world needs

Last week, South Korea and Ukraine accused North Korea of deploying troops to support Russia in its war in Ukraine. North Korea denies doing so. This week, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said there was “evidence” of North Korean troops in Russia, but that what they are doing there “is left to be seen”. Pyongyang sending troops to fight in Ukraine would signal North Korea’s evolution from an isolated pariah state to a tangible threat to international security – one that can directly influence conflicts thousands of miles away from the Korean peninsula and potentially reshape global security. The evidence of North Korea’s military intervention is mounting. Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said Russian naval vessels were transporting North Korean special forces units and that the troops were being stationed in Russia’s Far East. It also said North Korean military officers had visited a missile launch site near the Russia-Ukraine war front in August. Ukraine released a video which appears to show North Korean soldiers receiving uniforms in Russia. While the video could not be independently verified, Korean speech is audible in the background. These developments seem to corroborate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s earlier statement that over 10,000 North Korean troops were preparing to join Russian forces and previous Ukrainian media reports stating that six North Korean officers had been killed in a Ukrainian missile attack near Donetsk on October 3. If, as South Korea’s intelligence service says, around 1,500 North Korean soldiers are already in Vladivostok, it is clear that the mutual defence pact signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June was much more than bravado. While there have been reports of shipments of North Korean weapons for Russian use in Ukraine for more than a year, sending soldiers to fight on the ground would cross a critical red line. Zelensky has warned that a third nation joining the hostilities could turn the conflict into a “world war”. According to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, the 10,000 North Korean troops will be ready to fight in Ukraine on November 1. While some analysts suggest these troops are likely to end up serving as cannon fodder for Russia’s war effort, the implications extend far beyond Ukraine’s battlefields. For one, North Korea would gain invaluable combat experience, crucial for any potential conflict with South Korea, in which ground forces would likely play a decisive role. Moreover, in exchange for this military support, Moscow could help Pyongyang acquire fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles and nuclear technology expertise. Beyond Europe, the implications of Pyongyang’s choices will also negatively affect stability on the Korean peninsula and in East Asia more broadly. North Korean media reported last week that the country had blown up roads and railways connecting the two Koreas in accordance with a constitutional stipulation that South Korea is a “hostile state”. This signals that North Korea’s constitution may indeed have been amended to reflect the change in the country’s unification policy announced last December. Tensions could get worse in the coming weeks, however, with North Korea warning of retaliation in response to a South Korean drone allegedly infiltrating its capital’s airspace. Moreover, North Korea’s strengthening military relationship with Russia provides it with a powerful alternative to Chinese support, potentially emboldening Pyongyang to take more aggressive action against South Korea. Heightened tensions between the two Koreas would further destabilise the region, with increasing US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation unlikely to go unnoticed by Beijing. Clearly, years of sanctions and deterrence efforts by the US and its allies have done little to curb North Korea’s military growth. Nevertheless, South Korea, the US and Japan announced the launch of a new sanctions monitoring mechanism with eight other countries last week. If history is any indication, however, the efforts are likely to be in vain, particularly given China and Russia’s strong opposition to UN sanctions targeting Pyongyang. Moreover, the approaching US presidential election creates a potential window of opportunity for Russia and North Korea to advance their objectives while Washington’s attention is focused domestically. Moscow could significantly ramp up its offensive against Ukraine with North Korean help, further shifting the war’s outcome in its favour. The risk of the war expanding beyond Ukraine into other European territories can also not be ignored. One key question in Europe will be whether South Korea will agree to send lethal aid to Ukraine. Seoul’s presidential office convened an emergency security meeting on Friday after the revelations by the country’s intelligence service, stating that the government “plans to actively pursue necessary measures” in response. A change in South Korea’s stance could have a major impact in Ukraine’s favour, given the Asian nation’s vast stockpiles of artillery and wide range of highly desirable military equipment. Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would be a double-edged sword for Seoul, however, as it would be likely to elicit a powerful response from North Korea. Even if South Korean lethal aid helps Kyiv balance against the presence of North Korean troops, Pyongyang may choose to dispatch more military personnel, provide Russia with more destructive weapons, or conduct more dangerous military provocations along the inter-Korean border. A strong and coordinated international response is needed. The era of “strategic patience” must end. If the next US president does not overhaul decades of failed North Korea policy and find a way to resume diplomatic dialogue with Pyongyang, there may be worse to come from North Korea. As long as diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang remains nonexistent, North Korea will continue expanding its military endeavours across international borders.

North Korean intervention in Ukraine is the last thing the world needs

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Pyongyang sending troops to fight in Ukraine would signal North Korea’s evolution from an isolated pariah state to a tangible threat to international security

Pyongyang sending troops to fight in Ukraine would signal North Korea’s evolution from an isolated pariah state to a tangible threat to international security