Macroscope | Could Japan’s ruling party election revamp relations with China?

It may be an exaggeration to say that the future of East Asia hangs on the outcome of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election next month, which will decide who Japan’s next prime minister will be, but a great deal more is at stake for the region than meets the outside eye.

In particular, Japan needs to stem the erosion of its economic, political and diplomatic relations with China, a relationship that some fear is drifting dangerously towards friction or even open conflict as Japan binds itself ever closer to the United States and its allies.

It is clear that the political tide has turned against the long-ruling LDP to the point where some senior members have warned of it possibly losing power. Such are the politics of power that the party may have to support former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is considered more pro-China than the party’s other leadership candidates. Ishiba is also popular with voters.

At 67, Ishiba is older than some of the other candidates seeking to make their mark in a leadership election that is becoming more of a beauty contest. But he also has a mature view of Japan-China relations, which is needed badly at this time.

He has indicated that he wants cooperation rather than confrontation with China where it is in Japan’s interest, and has gone so far as to suggest the need for a Nato-like pact among Asian powers. Programmes such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative would also be likely to receive a more sympathetic hearing under Ishiba.

The incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s “new capitalism” vision is very much oriented towards market capitalism and making Japan a nation of portfolio investors. This would align Japan more closely with the US, as opposed to financial systems elsewhere in Asia.