Opinion

To survive US-China rivalry, Asean must work to dial down tensions

If Southeast Asia is not to end up a graveyard of China- and US-backed military misadventures, Asean leaders must go beyond centrality to mediate tensions, without being seen as against either side

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US President Joe Biden escorts Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to their trilateral summit at the White House in Washington, on April 11. Though a Southeast Asian survey found that more would align with China over the US, the region’s distrust of Beijing also ticked higher, amid South China Sea tensions. Photo: Reuters

Chee Yik-wai is a Malaysia-based intercultural specialist, a serial social entreprenur who co-founded Crowdsukan focusing on sport for good.

Published: 8:30pm, 14 Apr 2024

For the first time, a majority in Southeast Asia favour alignment with China over the US, according to “The State of Southeast Asia 2024” survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. The survey’s accuracy in reflecting mass opinion has been questioned, given its elite group of respondents – which included government officials, researchers, pundits and businessmen – and the weighting applied to each country’s response. But it still offers valuable insights for leaders in the United States, China and especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

My biggest takeaway is that Asean centrality as a diplomatic approach should be re-examined. To keep Asean safe and prosperous, asking the US and China to respect the bloc’s centrality is not enough. To survive, Asean must be pro-China and pro-US in different ways, but not seen as against either side. After all, should push come to shove, some Asean members under domestic pressure may not have the luxury of avoiding a choice.

For the superpowers, the annual survey also helps point out areas they can improve upon in courting Asean.

For China, although it was favoured over the US by one percentage point, the region’s distrust of Beijing also ticked higher. This is unsurprising given the South China Sea tensions.