appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Cliff Buddle

The ability to predict the outcome of events, from wars and elections to cup finals or the weather, is a skill well worth possessing in an uncertain world. A successful look into the crystal ball can bring great riches but also lead to devastating financial loss.
Prediction markets, online platforms that allow speculators to buy a stake in the yes or no result of a diverse array of events, have soared in popularity in recent years. They are styled as financial products, but are, in practice, a form of gambling.
The platforms threaten to disrupt the global betting industry and have led to concerns about insider trading, contractual disputes and a lack of regulation. Now, they have been cited as the prime motivation for a sudden policy U-turn in Hong Kong.
Last week, the government announced that a landmark plan to legalise betting in the city on basketball matches has been suspended. This was a surprise, as the move was well-advanced and expected to launch within months.
The initiative was announced in the budget, in February last year, and was quickly followed by a one-month public consultation. Legislation to permit the new channel for sports betting, joining horse racing and football, was passed in September. There was no suggestion there was a problem.
But the government now says it needs more time to consider the growing impact of prediction markets, fearing the introduction of lawful betting on basketball would fuel greater interest and participation in gambling on the platforms, which is illegal in Hong Kong.
The Home Affairs and Youth Bureau flagged that the trading volume of prediction markets reached US$64 billion last year, triple that of 2024, with monthly levels soaring to more than US$13 billion.
Officials warned the surge could bring much uncertainty to the betting industry with the monthly trading volume of prediction markets expected to increase fivefold by 2030, with 40 per cent wagered on sport.
The justification for the abrupt halting of the basketball plan has, understandably, been greeted with some scepticism.
Prediction platforms have been around for more than 20 years and were becoming more popular before the basketball betting plan was announced, although the trend has gathered pace since. Concerns about the platforms did not feature in either the public consultation or the legislative process.
The city’s sole legal bookmaker, the Hong Kong Jockey Club, was gearing up for the launch, hiring 180 people and setting aside HK$1 billion for the development of a new system and related infrastructure. It is good to see that the club will divert the funds and try to retain the professionals it recruited.
Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak Mei-kuen argued the government was acting in the public interest and that it would be irresponsible to “blindly” introduce basketball betting while ignoring trends in illegal gambling and the fast-developing external environment.
There may also be other considerations. The decision to introduce basketball betting came at a time when Hong Kong was facing a steep budget deficit of HK$100 billion. The government denied the move had anything to do with raising revenue. But the estimated HK$1.5 billion in tax it was expected to receive from wagers on basketball within a few years would, no doubt, have been welcome.
Concerns about the deficit have since eased, with income from IPOs and bonds driving the city back into the black.
The logic behind the suspension of the plan is also difficult to fathom. It was introduced, we were told, to combat illegal gambling. Now, it is being pulled … to combat illegal gambling.
But there was, from the beginning, a need for the government to be cautious when opening up the city’s limited avenues for legitimate wagers to basketball. This is not a policy that should be rushed.
The argument for legalising betting on basketball is that it has become increasingly popular, with illegal betting syndicates the biggest beneficiaries. The Jockey Club estimated unlawful bookmakers received a breathtaking HK$70 billion to HK$90 billion in 2024, from 100,000-150,000 Hong Kong punters.
Making it legal would have diverted at least 30-40 per cent of the funds to the new, legitimate channel. In addition to the tax revenue this would bring, the community would benefit from bigger charitable donations from the club.
If people must gamble, it is clearly better that they do so through limited, carefully regulated channels with age restrictions and other safeguards.
But the government faces a dilemma whenever it considers expanding avenues for gambling. There is no escaping the reality that such a move promotes betting and makes it seem more acceptable. There is a significant risk of this, in turn, leading to more gambling addicts, including among the young.
This is why Mak described such plans as “a last resort” and Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, speaking in 2024, said he was hesitant to legalise additional gambling to raise government revenue. “I don’t think this is the right direction,” he added at a budget forum that year.
The growth of the prediction market platforms is being closely watched around the world. US President Donald Trump is a fan. His social media platform Truth Social is to offer a prediction market and the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Junior, has advisory roles with two of the leading players.
Hong Kong will need to consider how it approaches the trend. The platforms offer “contracts” – effectively bets – on a wide range of events, including some relevant to the city, from the prospects of a military clash between mainland China and Taiwan to the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on a given day.
The legal and financial risks of trying to predict the future on one of these platforms are clear. But many will not be deterred. Meanwhile, problem gambling generally remains a concern around the world.
A report in the Lancet medical journal in 2024 described betting as a growing global threat, estimating there are 80 million problem gamblers and calling for concerted action.
Measures intended to mitigate the impact of legalising basketball betting in Hong Kong – such as increasing awareness of the risks, shielding the young and providing support for addicts – should proceed, even though the plan has been suspended.
All bets, I suspect, are off on the question of whether legal basketball wagers will arrive in Hong Kong any time soon. The plan has, at least, sparked much-needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction.


US-Israeli failure to bomb Iran into submission was preordained

Why China’s shrinking population may be a blessing, not a curse

Hong Kong has bounced back since the bleak days of the pandemic

The West should stop blaming China for its economic woes

My Take

All bets are off on legal basketball wagers in Hong Kong

A Hong Kong Jockey Club betting branch in Central. Photo: Jonathan Wong

Call to check tech trends when drafting policies after basketball betting U-turn

The Hong Kong Jockey Club says it respects the authorities’ decision and will wait for further advice on its basketball betting licence application. Photo: Jelly Tse

Doreen Kong says a lot of NGOs rely on Jockey Club funding. Photo: Nora Tam

Hong Kong’s basketball betting U-turn ‘aligns with Beijing gambling clampdown’

The Jockey Club’s betting centre on Hankow Road in Tsim Sha Tsui. Photo: Jelly Tse

Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak. Photo: Jonathan Wong

Peter Koon urges the government to proceed with basketball betting after completing its review. Photo: Elson Li

Prediction market boom raises concerns as Hong Kong calls off basketball bets

A spherical LED display on the premises of online prediction gaming platform Polymarket. Photo: AFP

Polymarket runs trending bets including wagers on whether the US and Iran would reach a permanent peace agreement by a specific date. Photo: AFP

Hong Kong puts launch of basketball betting on hold

A Jockey Club betting branch in Central. The club was expected to run basketball betting.  Photo: Jonathan Wong

A Jockey Club betting centre in Tsim Sha Tsui. An internal notice circulated late last month by the club said it respected the government’s decision. Photo: Jelly Tse

Opinion

The shelved plan has, at least, sparked needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction


The shelved plan has, at least, sparked needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction.


United States

Hong Kong

Paul Chan

Alice Mak Mei-kuen

Donald Trump

Donald Trump Jnr

Hong Kong Jockey Club

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

All bets are off on legal basketball wagers in Hong Kong

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The shelved plan has, at least, sparked needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction

The shelved plan has, at least, sparked needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction