World leaders rush to size up Harris, but brace for Trump win: ‘ready for both scenarios’

The sudden elevation of Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner injects fresh uncertainty into the US election for world leaders already grappling with the implications of Donald Trump’s potential return to the presidency.

It’s a measure of the foreboding over Trump that most foreign officials viewed President Joe Biden’s exit from the race in terms of whether it improved the chances of defeating the Republican challenger. With varying degrees of frankness, they pinned hopes on Harris overtaking Trump in November’s election to become America’s first female president.

Biden’s decision on Sunday to end his re-election campaign drew a line under the long-running drama over his physical and mental frailty. While polls suggest Harris may be marginally better placed to challenge Trump, that doesn’t alter the basic strategic calculation for governments around the world; they need to be ready for a second Trump term.

Most European governments are quietly looking to cultivate relations with Republicans to ensure they have a line in to a potential Trump White House, according to two officials with knowledge of the situation.

“We have to be ready for both scenarios,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said. “We cannot have wishful thinking that one candidate is better than [the] other.”

Harris’s new status as the likely Democratic nominee prompts two key questions for allies and adversaries alike. Can she win? And how much would President Harris’ foreign policy differ from Biden’s?