Belarus edges closer to joining Ukraine war – could it turn the tide for Russia?
- Putin ally Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy near the Ukraine border, as Moscow reels from a series of defeats
- Belarus’ armed forces total just 48,000 personnel and are not combat-tested, but their potential intervention could divert Kyiv’s attention to the north
A flurry of military activity in Belarus this week has caught the attention of Ukraine and the West as a potential sign that President Alexander Lukashenko may commit his army in support of Russia’s flailing war effort in Ukraine.
Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near the Ukraine border, and his defence ministry says “combat readiness” drills are under way. On Tuesday, the interior ministry held exercises to eliminate “sabotage groups” near Yelsk, only 20km (12 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the Group of Seven (G7) countries to place an international observer mission near the border, while France warned Belarus it could face more Western sanctions if it deepened its involvement in Ukraine.
Belarus allowed itself to be used as a launch pad for Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine but has not joined the fighting directly.
Analysts say Lukashenko would have no choice but to comply if Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded he enter the war, at a moment when Moscow is reeling from a series of defeats and facing unprecedented public criticism of its generals’ failings.
But they are sceptical that Belarus’s intervention would make much of a difference. Its armed forces total just 48,000 personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and have not fought a war in more than 30 years of independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union.