Battered Iran faces uncertain future after 12-day war with Israel
Decimated military ranks and mauled alliances might push Tehran to openly pursue a nuclear bomb or renewed talks with the US
The bombing has quieted in Iran’s 12-day conflict with Israel. Now its battered theocracy and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must regroup and rebuild in a changed landscape.
Israeli air strikes decimated the upper ranks of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker buster bombs damaged the nuclear programme – though how much remains disputed. Khamenei went into deep isolation in an undisclosed location, appearing only twice in videos as the Israelis had free rein over the country’s skies.
Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance”, a group of allied countries and militias in the Middle East, has been mauled by the Israelis since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack. Foreign support Tehran may have expected from China and Russia never materialised. At home, old problems remain, particularly an economy wrecked by international sanctions, corruption and mismanagement.
“Iran’s leadership has been dealt a heavy blow and will be conscious of preserving the ceasefire, which gives the regime breathing room and allows space to focus on internal security and reconstruction,” the Eurasia Group said in an analysis Wednesday.
One thing Israel’s campaign showed was how much its intelligence agencies have infiltrated Iran – particularly its swift pinpointing of military and Guard commanders and top nuclear scientists for strikes.