Why Russia’s ballistic missiles are breaking through in Ukraine
Interceptors are running low, warning times are seconds, and only one air-defence system can stop them
When Russia fires a ballistic missile at Ukraine, air-defence systems have only minutes – sometimes seconds – to detect and intercept the deadly threat.
The lack of time has left Kyiv and other cities increasingly exposed to devastating attacks by the missiles that come down so fast and so steeply that Ukraine says only the US-made Patriot defence system can stop them. But Ukraine says it has too few batteries and interceptors to protect itself.
Unlike cruise missiles, which behave like pilotless planes, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and then dive steeply towards their targets at several times the speed of sound.
That sharply reduces the time available to find and destroy a warhead. The result has been repeated attacks like the latest barrage on the Ukrainian capital that targeted a brewery, a warehouse and a mail-sorting office. At least 17 people were killed and dozens more wounded, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday.
When the warhead is hurled towards its target, “it’s very, very steep and it’s going at a ridiculous speed,” said Thomas Withington, an expert on electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, who compared the physics to playing catch. If the ball is “going really fast, it’s harder to catch”.
Russia’s ground-launched Iskander-M missile is the Kremlin’s main ballistic missile. Another example is the air-launched Kinzhal missile. Russia has also fired S-300 and S-400 air-defence missiles at ground targets. A model known as the Zircon is technically a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile, but its high speed resembles that of a ballistic missile and creates a similar interception problem.