Baltic nations planning for mass evacuations in the event of a Russian attack

Alarmed by Russia’s vast military spending since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the three Baltic states were drawing up contingency plans to deal with the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing a Russian troop build-up or attack.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have long voiced fears to fellow Nato states about possible Russian aggression, citing Russian cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and incursions over the past few months by Russian fighter jets and drones.

Russia has repeatedly said it had no plans to attack Nato. But the three countries, which were annexed by Moscow during World War II, have doubled defence spending since the all-out attack on Ukraine that followed repeated Russian denials of any such plan.

“Threats could vary,” said Renatas Pozela, who as head of Lithuania’s firefighting service is involved in the contingency planning, which has been stepped up since the three countries agreed to cooperate on civil protection in May. Details of the numbers of potential evacuees officials were preparing for were being reported here for the first time.

“It’s possible we will see a mighty army along the borders of the Baltics, with the apparent goal of taking all three countries in three days to a week,” Pozela said.