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Agence France-Presse

Artificial intelligence (AI) was struggling on Wednesday to forecast the outcome of the notoriously secretive and unpredictable process by which Catholic cardinals elect a new pope.
The April 21 death of Pope Francis triggered a period of mourning in the Catholic Church, but also kick-started the race for his successor, with everyone from Vatican insiders to bookmakers scrambling to guess who it will be.
Agence France-Presse asked four AI chatbots – including OpenAI’s ChatGPT and billionaire Elon Musk’s Grok – for insights into the potential front runners, with mixed results.
Grok and Google’s Gemini said their top contender is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s number two during nearly all of Francis’s papacy.
“Based on current analysis and prominent discussions, Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerges as a strong contender,” said Gemini.

But it also listed some eight others – including ChatGPT’s leading pick.
“If I had to make a prediction based on current trends, influence, and the direction the Church has taken under Pope Francis, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle stands out as the most likely candidate,” Open AI’s ChatGPT said.
Tagle is Asia’s front runner for the papacy and, like Francis, seen as a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.
But one similarity in the chatbots’ responses stood out.
Each emphasised the near impossibility of forecasting the outcome.
“It’s important to understand that while AI can analyse data and identify patterns, predicting the next Pope involves factors that go beyond data analysis,” said Gemini.

These include the cardinals’ theological stances, age, experience, and the secrecy surrounding the vote.
ChatGPT made it clear that its guess was “not a prediction in the crystal ball sense”, but rather “a ‘here’s what the cardinals might consider’ kind of thing”.
Meanwhile, French company Mistral AI refused to get dragged into the guessing game at all.
“I don’t have the ability to predict or speculate on who the next Pope will be,” it said.
Mistral did offer one suggestion: “For the most accurate and up-to-date information, I recommend following reliable news sources.”


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Italy

Can AI predict next pope? ChatGPT, Musk’s Grok, Google Gemini struggle with Vatican riddle

AI tools offered mixed insights on who could replace Pope Francis. Photo: EPA-EFE

Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been the Secretary of State of the Holy See since 2014. Photo: AP

Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, left, shows Pope Francis how to give the popular hand sign for “I love you” at the Mall of Asia arena in Manila, Philippines in 2015. Photo: AP

Who will succeed Pope Francis? Exploring potential candidates from Vatican circles

A person stands next to a photograph of Pope Francis inside Saint Anthony Catholic Church in Istanbul, Turkey on Monday. Photo: AP

Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conference. Photo: AP

Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the archbishop of Munich and Freising, offered to resign as archbishop to atone for the German church’s dreadful abuse record. Photo: AP

Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet has defended priestly celibacy for the Latin Rite church and upheld the ban on women’s ordination. Photo: AP

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, has been the Secretary of State of the Holy See since 2014. Photo: AP

If Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost replaced Pope Francis, he would become the first American pontiff. Photo: AP

Cardinal Robert Sarah, is considered the best hope for an African pope. Photo: AP

Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn has expressed support for civil unions and women as deacons. Photo: AP

Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, who has Chinese lineage could become the first Asian pope. Photo: AP

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi Francis’ was named Francis’ peace envoy for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Photo: EPA-EFE

Vatican recounts Pope’s last words: ‘thank you for bringing me back to St Peter’s square’

Pope Francis waves to the crowd as he arrives for a weekly general audience at St Peter’s square in 2017 at the Vatican. Photo: AFP

A portrait of Pope Francis with a message below it reading in Italian “Farewell Pope Francis”, is seen in the window of a religious jewellery shop, near the Vatican on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies at 88, on Easter Monday

Pope Francis waves at the general audience at Saint Peter’s Square in the Vatican in October 2022. Photo: AFP

The Basilica of Saint Mary Major in Rome following the death of Pope Francis on Monday. The Vatican said Francis had confirmed in his final testament his wish to be to be buried at the basilica. Photo: AFP

A man shows a copy of the Vatican’s L’Osservatore Romano newspaper after a rosary prayer for the late pope, in St Peter’s Square at the Vatican in Rome on Monday. Photo: AP

What happens after Pope Francis’ death?

Pope Francis swaps his skull cap during the weekly general audience at the Vatican in January 2024. The death of the pontiff triggers several rituals, including mourning, a funeral, and a conclave. Photo: AFP

During the “sede vacante” period, Irish-American Cardinal Kevin Farrell, the camerlengo, will manage the ordinary affairs of the 1.4 billion-member Roman Catholic Church. Photo: AP

Pope Francis greets thousands of members of the association of Italian Catholic Guides and Scouts in Vatican City, in June 2015. Cardinals will elect a new pope, announced by white smoke from Sistine Chapel. Photo: EPA-EFE

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AI tools struggled with the Vatican’s secrecy, providing mixed insights on papal contenders like Parolin and Tagle, making predictions nearly impossible


AI tools struggled with the Vatican’s secrecy, providing mixed insights on papal contenders like Parolin and Tagle, making predictions nearly impossible.
